Alberta separatists getting organized — a unity challenge for Canada and Danielle Smith’s party

If the Liberals win re-election, there is a fear that western separatist sentiment may tick upwards, much like what happened after the 2019 election with the Wexit movement. However, this time around there seems to be a more organized and robust organization pushing for separatism, both within and outside of the United Conservative Party (UCP) base.

Last month, a group of pro-sovereignty Albertans held a news conference in Calgary, announcing a petition drive to get a provincial separation referendum as soon as this fall. Mitch Sylvestre, a UCP riding president and president of the Alberta Prosperity Project, emphasized the financial benefits he saw in Alberta leaving Canada, suggesting it could be used as a leverage play to get better treatment from the federal government.

There is a growing sentiment within the UCP base that Alberta should secede, with influential figures like Mitch Sylvestre and David Parker leading the charge. Parker, who believes that Alberta should move towards independence while the spirit is still strong, expects a more credible and organized movement this time around.

The Republican Party of Alberta, a low-profile separatist party, has also emerged, claiming to have support from some UCP MLAs. They may even consider running candidates in upcoming provincial by-elections, potentially splitting the conservative vote in NDP stronghold seats.

Premier Danielle Smith has always advocated for sovereignty within a united Canada, but she has also been critical of federal policies and has warned of a national unity crisis if her demands are not met. Should Mark Carney win the election, there may be increased pressure on Smith to address the frustrations within her conservative base.

The potential unrest within the UCP base could demand a response from Smith, who may have to navigate a delicate balance between addressing separatist sentiments and maintaining party unity. Grassroots UCP members could push for action at the party’s annual convention in November, posing a challenge for Smith’s leadership.

One significant difference between 2019 and 2025 is the increased Liberal support in Alberta, with the party leading in the polls and forecasted to win between four and 11 seats. This higher level of Liberal support may indicate that more people want the Liberals to win rather than see their victory as a cue to leave Canada.

As the election approaches, Danielle Smith will need to find a way to address the disparate wishes of Albertans, ensuring that she represents all of her constituents and maintains unity within the UCP. The potential for increased separatist sentiment poses a challenge for Smith, who will need to navigate these tensions effectively to secure her position as premier of Alberta.