How the Liberals came up short in Ontario — and lost their majority bid
Winning a fourth mandate and returning to power was certainly a victory for the federal Liberals, but it was marred by a disappointing showing in Ontario which played a significant role in costing them a majority. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer for the research firm Pollara and former research strategist for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, noted that while the Liberals did win the most seats in Ontario with 49.6% of the popular vote, their inability to hold onto all their seats in the province ultimately led to a minority government instead of a majority.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, made significant gains in Ontario, winning 53 seats and 44% of the popular vote. This was a net gain of 16 seats for the Conservatives and a loss of nine for the Liberals. The NDP, who had previously held five seats in the province, were completely wiped out.
The results in Ontario defied some projections, with the Conservatives outperforming in areas like the GTA, especially in the 905 region. The Conservatives managed to flip a handful of red seats in the GTA, which contributed to their overall success in the province.
One of the key reasons for the Liberal losses in Ontario could be attributed to issues like affordability and housing pressures, which resonated with voters in the region. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, focused on these issues throughout the campaign, which may have swayed voters who were struggling with rising mortgage payments and other financial challenges.
Additionally, the perception of rising crime rates, particularly auto thefts, in the 905 region also worked against the Liberals. The Conservatives were able to capitalize on these concerns in the final weeks of the campaign, making a strong case for change and resonating with voters who were looking for solutions to these issues.
The NDP’s decline in support also played a role in the Liberal losses, as the Liberals absorbed some of the NDP vote in many parts of the province. However, in areas where there wasn’t as much NDP support to begin with, or where the NDP vote split evenly between the Liberals and Conservatives, the Liberals struggled to make gains.
The Doug Ford factor, as well as the “boots versus suits” dynamic, also played a role in the Conservative gains in Ontario. The Conservatives managed to appeal to working-class, private-sector voters in sectors like trades, manufacturing, and natural resources, which helped them secure victories in key ridings.
Overall, the disappointing showing in Ontario was a significant factor in the Liberals falling short of a majority government. While they were able to win the most seats in the province, the gains made by the Conservatives and the challenges faced in key ridings ultimately cost them the majority they were hoping for.
