What to watch for in Monday’s 4 federal midterm elections

Four new MPs will be elected to the House of Commons on Monday in a handful of by-elections that political observers say could reveal rifts within the Conservative Party and throw a hopeful new Liberal cabinet into the fold.

The Liberals are expected to hold seats in Winnipeg and Montreal, said Philippe J. Fournier, the polling analyst behind the 338Canada polling aggregator website.

The Tories, meanwhile, are poised to hang on to seats in rural Ontario and Manitoba, he said — but their margin of victory in both rides could be enlightening for those who want to read the political tea leaves.

The closest you’ll get to a nail biter is probably Oxford, a mostly rural area of ​​southern Ontario that’s been a conservative stronghold for nearly 20 years.

Power struggles between parties have led to “the nastiest campaign we’ve ever seen in our riding,” said Dave MacKenzie, who announced he would step down in December.

“It has divided our party and our community.”

MacKenzie won the 2021 federal election with nearly 47 percent of the vote, a 27-point margin over the Liberal nominee.

But his surprise endorsement of this contest’s Liberal candidate, whom he calls “an honest man,” has drawn attention — and Fournier said it could eat into Conservatives’ support.

“It’s probably going to be a Conservative victory, but the fact that it’s close [in polls] must frighten some conservatives,” he said.

“They can’t start losing seats in Ontario if they want to win the next general election.”

MacKenzie said he believes the Conservative Party parachuted its candidate Arpan Khanna into the riding school without due process.

He alleged that Conservative leader Pierre Poilièvre and House leader Andrew Scheer interfered with their local association by influencing the nomination process and taking away the base power.

Khanna aided Poilivre’s campaign in Ontario during its leadership campaign and ran for Scheer in a Brampton ride in 2019.

MacKenzie said Khanna’s nomination has led people to cancel their membership in the Conservatives and reclaim donations.

He said this should be a wake-up call for Poilièvre.

“He’s not a bad guy, but he’s got cancer going around him and he should be shaking that stuff out,” MacKenzie said.

The party did not respond to a request for comment.

Tories hope to defeat the leader of the People’s Party in Manitoba

But it is clear that the Conservatives would rather see the country centered on Portage-Lisgar, where they want to stamp out People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier’s bid to rejoin the House of Commons.

Bernier has said he wants to give his party a more prominent voice and prove that the Conservatives are not strong enough in the “cultural battle” that supporters care about. He campaigned against transgender-inclusive policies and promised to reopen the abortion debate.

In the last federal election, Bernier’s candidate received nearly 22 percent of the vote in Portage-Lisgar. Prominent conservative Candice Bergen nevertheless won with more than half of the vote. Last fall, she announced her retirement.

While Bernier is unlikely to be elected, Fournier said, the Conservatives will see whether or not his party can stretch that margin.

Fournier said the Conservatives’ recent pledges to “never go to the World Economic Forum” — an international organization that has become a source of rampant conspiracy theories online — show they are trying to win back voters who voted for the People’s Party last time. Party of Canada chose .

Poilièvre himself held a rally in Winkler a few weeks ago and revived slogans against the World Economic Forum, targeting Bernier’s participation in that event when he was Foreign Secretary under former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Lori Turnbull, an associate professor of political science at Dalhousie University, said she sees this as an important opportunity for Poilièvre to show he can gain support from the party’s far right wing.

“That will energize people in the Conservative party who are afraid they are losing votes on the right,” she said.

That fear led to the impeachment of former leader Erin O’Toole after the last federal election, Turnbull argued.

“It wasn’t just because he lost the election. It was because there was a sense that he wasn’t doing anything to address the possible bleeding on the right side, and that wasn’t going to be undone.”

Winnipeg South Center is expected to remain a Liberal seat following the death of longtime MP Jim Carr last December.

His son Ben Carr will likely take his father’s place, Fournier said.

And a prominent liberal insider, Anna Gainey, is expected to keep Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount in the red following the retirement of former cabinet minister Marc Garneau.

Gainey is a former party chairman and served as policy adviser to two ministers of defense and veterans’ affairs.

That experience could put her in a prominent position, Turnbull suggested.

“She’s had such a prominent place in the party, served as party president and is a good friend of the Trudeaus. Will there be a cabinet position for her?’ she said.

“I’d be surprised if she didn’t get a leading role.”