Liberal candidates projected to win 2 federal byelections, Tory takes Manitoba seat

The Liberal candidates in two party strongholds in Manitoba and Quebec have won their respective seats in a federal byelection and so too has a Conservative in rural Manitoba, CBC News projects.

The race in a fourth byelection held in southwestern Ontario is still too close to call.

Voters in the Montreal-area riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount have elected Liberal Anna Gainey to Parliament.

The result is not unexpected given that the seat is among the safest Liberal ridings in the country. As of 11:15 p.m. ET, Gainey had about 50 per cent of the vote.

While it’s considered a Liberal stronghold, many anglophones in the riding were angered by the government’s recent overhaul of the Official Languages Act.

Gainey is a personal friend of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and previously served as the party’s president. Given those close ties, Gainey is a contender for a cabinet post in a future shuffle.

Gainey beat Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault, a political neophyte who was elected along with MP Elizabeth May last year to lead the party. Pedneault is on track to finish second.

Tory on track to trounce Maxime Bernier in Portage-Lisgar

Further west, voters in the Manitoba riding of Portage-Lisgar have elected Conservative Branden Leslie to the House of Commons, CBC News projects.

Leslie had a commanding 62.5 per cent of the vote cast as of 11:15 p.m. ET — a tally that suggests he’s likely to trounce his main opponent, People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier.

The former Quebec MP parachuted into the riding to try to win his party’s first seat. That effort appears to have failed with voters choosing Leslie, a former political staffer who worked for a grain farmers’ advocacy group, instead.

Bernier chose to run in the riding because it’s one where the People’s Party performed best in the COVID-era 2021 federal election. The party’s electoral future is in question after Bernier’s poor showing.

Leslie and Bernier traded barbs throughout the campaign. Bernier has called his opponent a “fake” conservative. Leslie, in turn, has called Bernier “an opportunist from Quebec who will say or do anything he thinks people want to hear.”

To take on the far-right Bernier, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre visited the riding and used rhetoric targeting the World Economic Forum — an international organization that has become a focus of many right-wing conspiracy theories online — during a stump speech.

The riding, long held by former interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen, is among the safest Conservative seats in the country.

Liberal Ben Carr takes Winnipeg South Centre

Also in Manitoba, voters have returned school principal and former political staffer Ben Carr to represent Winnipeg South Centre the House of Commons, CBC News projects. As of 11:15 p.m., the Liberal had about half of the vote.

Carr was running to replace his late father, Jim, who died of cancer in December.

The urban riding has been in the Liberal win column for decades — except for a four-year gap period after the 2011 election that produced a Conservative majority.

The four seats in question tonight have been considered “safe” for the parties that currently hold them.

If any of these ridings changes hands, it would be considered a major upset — a departure from pattern that could shift the power dynamic in Ottawa.

Even if seats don’t change hands, these byelections could serve as a barometer reading on how voters in four geographically diverse ridings perceive the current state of affairs and the leaders of Canada’s two major political parties.

A Liberal flop in stronghold seats would suggest Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet are in a tough spot. That would validate some national polls that say support for the government has slumped after nearly eight years in power.

A Conservative loss — or a failure to make inroads in potentially winnable seats — would suggest fledgling leader Pierre Poilievre still has work to do to win over voters.

Oxford

Oxford, a largely rural riding in southwestern Ontario, has been held by a Conservative since the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties merged in the early 2000s.

Longtime Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie triggered the byelection when he stepped down in January.

His daughter Deb Tait ran for the party’s nomination and lost — a result that prompted accusations by Tait of wrongdoing, which the party has denied.

Arpan Khanna, a lawyer who previously ran for the party in Brampton, Ont., will carry the Conservative banner.

In an unusual move, MacKenzie and his daughter have endorsed the Liberal candidate, David Hilderley, a retired principal and real estate agent, over Khanna, who has been called a “parachute candidate” for his tenuous connection to the riding.

Speaking to the Canadian Press on Monday, MacKenzie said the party infighting has resulted in “the nastiest campaign that we’ve ever seen in our riding.”

“It’s divided our party and our community,” he said.

Cody Groat, a New Democrat, is also on the ballot.