El Nino is back. Here’s what it means for Canada
It has been awaited for a long time, and now it is here.
The El Niño global weather pattern has returned for the first time in seven years, the World Meteorological Organizationpaving the way for even more extreme weather and rising temperatures.
The UN agency made the statement Tuesday, after months of prediction suggesting that the weather pattern would likely return.
“The onset of El Niño will significantly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and causing more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” WMO Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas said in a statement Tuesday.
While a natural phenomenon, this is the first time El Niño has occurred on top of a baseline of so much man-made warming, which the WMO says is “playing out in uncharted waters.”
Here’s an overview of how El Niño works and what its return could mean for Canada.
Wait, what is El Niño again?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
(It’s the opposite La Ninawhere the surface of the Pacific Ocean cools).
Collectively, the El Niño/La Niña cycle is referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months.
It is linked to extreme weatherfrom heavy rainfall in South America to drought in Australia and parts of Asia.
The WMO said there is a 90 percent chance this final El Niño event will continue through the second half of 2023 and is expected to be at least of “moderate strength.”
The warmest year on record in the world, 2016, coincided with a strong El Niño – the last for this year.
How does this relate to climate change?
Regardless of where it is in the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the Earth is warming due to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Seen the last three years of La Niña some of the warmest global temperatures ever recorded.
Experts say the warming could have been even stronger without that cooling phenomenon.
A WMO report published in May predicted there is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the record set in 2016.
“I think it’s fair to say that with an El Niño happening in a background state of global warming, that extreme weather is going to get more extreme,” said John Gyakum, a professor in McGill University’s department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. .
LOOK | World Meteorological Organization explains the effects of El Niño:
What can we expect in Canada?
historical, Canada is most affected by El Niño in winter and spring. Milder-than-normal winters and springs occur in western and central Canada.
“I’d bet a few crazy people that with El Niño, especially if it’s strong and large, we’re in for a warmer-than-usual winter,” said Dave Philips, senior climatologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada.
It could also mean fewer hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, he said.
During the day the last El Ninoin the winter of 2015-2016, winter in Canada was 1°C to 5°C warmer than normal in all provinces, with particularly unusual warmth in Quebec, the central Prairies and Yukon.
Warmer temperatures don’t necessarily lead to an easier winter, Gyakum said.
“It doesn’t mean you’re going to have mild weather. On the contrary, we can have really bad weather,” he said, pointing to Quebec’s devastating ice storm in 1998, which also occurred during an El Niño year.
BC has already seen more than 50,000 acres of land burn this year thanks to an unusually warm and dry May. With June temperatures also predicted to be above average, meteorologist Johnanna Wagstaffe says forecasters are preparing for a tough summer.
And this summer?
Canada usually doesn’t notice a direct impact from El Niño until later in the year, Gyakum said.
“Most of the effects of El Niño happen in the winter when the jet streams are more active,” he said.
Philips said it’s unclear how much the global weather pattern has affected the summer so far, and Canada’s record wildfire season.
But he said certain extreme weather events could potentially be linked to El Niño, including heat waves in the southern US and Mexico, the UK and China.
“I wish I had more of a connection to summer weather and El Niño, but the science isn’t really there yet,” he said. “It takes a lot of work and modeling and statistical analysis to determine that.”
