The Blue Jays face an uphill battle in the second half

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put on a show at Seattle’s Home Run Derby last night, slamming nearly 9,000 feet of dingers to get rid of himself and Vladimir Sr. (2007) to become the first father-son duo to win the annual All-Star competition.

Vladdy’s win was a bright spot in a mixed bag of a season for his Toronto Blue Jays. With the unofficial second half of the season about to begin after tonight’s All-Star Game, here’s a casual update from a fan on some of the storylines surrounding Canada’s only Major League Baseball club:

The AL East is a beast.

Life in this division is never easy. This year it is downright unfair. In a sport where all six divisions have at least one bottom feeder, each of the five AL East clubs is over .500 in at least five games. Division-leading Tampa Bay (58-35) has the second best record in all of baseball and the largest difference. Even in last place, Boston ranks a respectable 15th overall in the majors.

But the Blue Jays are making progress. Since late May, when they were last in the division, the Jays have worked their way past the Red Sox and the big-spending Yankees, who won the AL East last year. Toronto (50-41) is still seven games behind Tampa Bay and five times behind Baltimore in second place (the AL wild card leader). But the Jays currently occupy one of three AL wild card spots, putting them on track to reach the post-season for the third time in four years.

However, there is not much room for error in the second half. World Series champion Houston is tied with Toronto for the second wild card, while the Yankees and Boston are only one and two games behind, respectively. To stay ahead in the race, the Jays may need to improve on their dismal 7-20 record against AL East opponents.

What happened to Guerrero’s power?

Despite last night’s Derby binge, the young star’s slugging numbers have plummeted since his breakthrough 2021 season, when he led the majors with 48 home runs and finished second in AL MVP voting. In 2022, Guerrero fell to 32 homers while also seeing significant drops in every other major batting stat — most notably his slugging percentage, which plummeted from an AL-high .601 in his near-MVP season to .480.

This year, the 24-year-old first baseman’s slugging percentage is down to .443 and he’s on track for fewer than 25 home runs. Toronto’s stadium renovations, including modifications to the outfield fences, could be partly to blame, as the Rogers Center has been a subpar park for hitters this season. But Guerrero’s waning power is a disturbing trend, and it’s fair to wonder if 2021, not 2022, was the real anomaly.

Bo Bichette is the Jays’ leading hitter.

Despite being two inches shorter and weighing more than 50 pounds less than Guerrero, Bichette has put out a lot more power this season. Toronto’s other young cornerstone leads the team in home runs (15), slugging percentage (.496) and batting average (.317) – all while maintaining a stellar defensive position as the team’s daily shortstop.

Alek Manoah has returned.

The massive young right-hander looked headed for big things after going 16-7 last season with a 2.24 ERA to earn a finalist nod for the AL Cy Young Award. But Toronto’s opening day starter struggled out of the gate, winning just one of his 13 starts while posting an abysmal 6.36 ERA and walking 42 in 58 innings.

In early June, the Jays finally decided they had had enough and sent the 25-year-old all the way down to the Florida Complex League – the lowest rung on the minor league ladder – to work out the kinks. After a terrible first outing in which he allowed 11 runs while recording just eight outs against a Yankees affiliate made up mostly of teenagers, Manoah turned the tide and earned promotion to the big club last Friday. The restart appeared to work, as he allowed only one run and five hits in six innings, while striking out eight Detroit Tigers and not walking a single one, earning his first big league win in three months.

Elsewhere in the rotation, strikeout artist Kevin Gausman returns to ace level this season, José Berríos has recovered well from a miserable year and pricey signing Chris Bassitt has been so-so. Canadian closer Jordan Romano leads the majors with 26 saves.

Pitching help could be coming soon as 2020 Cy Young finalist Hyun Jin Ryu is now in minor league rehab as part of his comeback from Tommy John surgery.

The new dome is a crowd pleaser.

The Jays spent much of the offseason hyped a $300 million renovation of the Rogers Center aimed at turning the largely charmless concrete dome “from a stadium into a ballpark,” in the words of team president Mark Shapiro. The investment appears to be paying off, as the average presence at Jay’s home games has risen to nearly 36,000 – an increase of over 5,000 fans per game.

Part of the boost can likely be attributed to baseball’s new pitch clock and other pace-accelerating rule changes, which were a hit with fans everywhere. The fact that the pandemic is now behind us could also play a role. Majors-wide, attendance has increased by about 2,300 fans per game.

But even in that context, the Jays’ gains at the turnstiles are impressive. Only Philadelphia, which came to the World Series in a surprise fashion, and Cleveland, which defended its first division title in four years, have seen higher attendances this season.