After the warmest week on record on Earth, extreme weather surprises everyone, even climate scientists
The heat is unprecedented as extreme weather events from wildfires to floods ravage various corners of the world.
Data suggests last week was the hottest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Temperatures have risen across much of southern Europe and the southern United States, while powerful rainstorms have led to flooding in Vermont, India, Japan — and Montreal on Thursday.
At the same time, Canada has already surpassed the record for the total burned area in a wildfire season.
This follows the warmest June on record, with unprecedented sea surface temperatures and record low Antarctic sea ice cover.
“There is a lot of concern from the scientific community and a lot of catching up in the scientific community trying to understand these incredible changes that we are seeing right now,” said Michael Sparrow, head of the WMO world climate research program.
‘We can expect more records to be broken’
All this comes at the beginning of El Nino, which is expected to further fuel heat both on land and in the oceans, according to Prof. Christopher Hewitt, WMO’s director of climate services.
“We are in uncharted territory and we can expect more records to be broken as El Niño continues to develop,” he said. “These effects will extend into 2024.”
Global sea surface temperatures hit new records for the time of year in both May and June, according to the WMO.
In Florida, for example, the water temperature at Johnson Key was 36 degrees Celsius, about 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, meteorologists said.
“As we move forward, we will see more extreme weather,” said Altaf Arain, a professor in the school of Earth, Environment and Society at McMaster University and director of McMaster’s Center for Climate Change.
While Arain isn’t entirely surprised by the rising temperatures, he said the idea of a “new normal” should be thrown out the window.
“It might not be fair to use that term because when you talk about the new normal, you have to look at the time scale,” he said.
“We’re going to have a new normal for the next decade. What about the next decade and the next decade? So would we keep changing these normals? So I think this discussion shouldn’t be there.”
Experiencing the smoke from Ontario wildfires earlier this summer was a reminder that the effects of climate change are far-reaching, he said.
“The message you get is we’re all in this together,” he said. “We will all be affected in one way or another.”
‘Statistically impossible’ becomes possible
Despite the heat and extreme weather of recent weeks, the planet has not necessarily reached a “tipping point,” said Nicholas Leach, a postdoctoral researcher in climate science at the University of Oxford.
“As far as we know, these extreme weather events are essentially going to continue,” said Leach, who was part of a team of scientists that is studying the “statistically impossibleHeat wave 2021 in BC
Canada’s all-time record was broken by nearly 5 degrees Celsius that summer, with a recorded high of 49.6 C in Lytton, BC
Worldwide there is extreme weather with floods, tornadoes and heat waves. Experts say it can all be traced back to climate change, and it’s a race against time to cool global temperatures and mitigate the effects.
Looking at historical data from 1959 to 2021, Leach’s research found that 31 percent of the Earth’s surface has already experienced such statistically implausible heat.
These regions are scattered around the world with no clear pattern, he said.
The conclusion? Other statistically unlikely events are likely.
“Countries that haven’t traditionally seen big jumps in their record, or particularly extreme events, shouldn’t be complacent about that and should start implementing these action plans and things that we know are effective in reducing the mortality risk from heat waves,” he said.
A learning curve for scientists
Scientists learn as events develop, allowing for better predictions and preparedness, said Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux, a Vermont state climatologist.
Her state has had rain within two days to two months this week. The massive flooding caused damage to homes and property and hundreds of people had to be rescued.
Despite the storm being “very well predicted,” Dupigny-Giroux said, it was still surprising to see such an impact on river levels.
A state of emergency has been declared in Vermont after the US state was battered by two months of rain in just two days. The rains have held up for now, but officials warn that the flood risk is far from over with more rain in the forecast.
“Looking at some of the river record levels and seeing values that are about 10 feet above the flood stage is just mind-boggling,” she said.
“Even if you had a model that predicted that, it’s still mind-boggling to see that in real life.”
