Canada prepares for a rise in border crossings with threat of mass deportations under Trump

As Donald Trump prepares to take office in January and fulfill his promise of deporting undocumented immigrants, organizations that work with newcomers are bracing for a potential increase in individuals attempting to cross the Canadian border. The threat of mass deportation could lead to a surge in both asylum claims at official ports of entry and clandestine crossings into Canada, according to Jennifer Elrick, an associate professor of sociology at McGill University who specializes in immigration policy.

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Canada’s borders could be profound, Elrick noted. When Trump first took office in 2017, there was a significant increase in arrivals, with thousands of people crossing into Canada, primarily at Roxham Road near Hemmingford, Quebec. However, crossing has become more challenging as the Safe Third Country Agreement was expanded last year to cover the entire land border between Canada and the U.S., effectively closing the Roxham Road loophole.

Melissa Claisse, who works at the Montreal-based Welcome Collective, expressed concerns about the closure of Roxham Road potentially leading more individuals to attempt dangerous crossings through wooded areas. The collective, which was established to assist those who crossed in 2017, is prepared to assist if Quebec becomes a destination for people fleeing the U.S.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) have been preparing for the possibility of an influx of migrants in the event of a Trump victory, according to Sgt. Charles Poirier. Authorities have seen an increase in illegal crossings south from Canada to the U.S., prompting concerns that there could be a rise in people traveling in the opposite direction.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland assured Canadians that the federal government has a plan in place to ensure border security. Following Trump’s win, Premier François Legault emphasized the importance of protecting the border, while Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon warned of a potential mass migration to Canada.

Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, does not anticipate a significant influx of refugees overnight but expects any impacts of Trump’s policies to manifest over time. Regardless of the outcome of Trump’s promised deportations, Elrick emphasized the need for a broader discussion on managing undocumented migration in Canada.

The U.S. presidential election has stirred reactions in Quebec, with differing views on another Trump presidency. As Canada prepares for potential changes in immigration patterns, organizations and authorities are on alert to address any influx of individuals crossing the border.