Trump looms large as Biden set to meet China’s Xi during Latin America summits

President Biden is currently in Latin America for a farewell tour, attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru and the G-20 summit in Brazil. The Biden administration faces limitations in setting the future agenda of these institutions due to the imminent change in power. Ariel González Levaggi, Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlighted that much of what Biden will emphasize at these summits will not carry over to the incoming Trump administration.

The first leg of President Biden’s tour takes him to Lima, Peru, where he will meet with world leaders at the APEC summit, with a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Subsequently, he will head to Brazil’s capital, Rio de Janeiro, for the G-20 summit, where he is scheduled to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the sidelines.

China’s expanding economic influence in Latin America will be a key topic of discussion at the APEC summit, with President Biden expected to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has significantly increased its economic presence in Latin America, with a notable investment in the construction of the Chancay megaport in Peru. This underscores China’s growing economic engagement with the region.

Trade between China and Latin America has seen substantial growth over the past two decades, reaching $315 billion in 2020. This figure is projected to double by 2035, exceeding $700 billion, indicating the deepening economic ties between the two regions.

As President Biden navigates these summits, he does so against the backdrop of former President Trump’s election victory and impending return to the White House. The focus of the summits will center on trade, security, and global alliances, although concrete outcomes are unlikely to materialize.

Mark Montgomery, a retired Rear Admiral and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized that President Biden faces challenges with both Trump’s reelection and China’s growing influence in Latin America. With Trump’s impending second term, a more assertive U.S. stance on economic and trade issues is expected, potentially leading to higher tariffs on Chinese and European imports.

Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, predicted that the U.S. could impose higher tariffs in 2025, providing leverage for Trump in his second term. Trump’s “America First” policy, characterized by trade wars and tariff hikes, is likely to make a comeback, impacting traditional U.S. allies as well.

In conclusion, President Biden’s participation in the APEC and G-20 summits marks his final international engagements in his long political career. As he navigates the shifting global landscape, the specter of Trump’s return to power and China’s economic ascendancy loom large, shaping the dynamics of international trade and alliances in the years ahead.