Would the US win a war with China over Taiwan? US lawmakers briefed on the potential outcome
House lawmakers received a briefing on Wednesday regarding a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, highlighting the increasing encroachment by the global superpower on U.S. allies. The Chinese defense industrial base is said to be operating at a “wartime footing,” with a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than that of the U.S., potentially leading to a scenario where China could invade Taiwan in the near future.
U.S. military analysts have projected 2027 as the year by which China would be fully equipped for a military invasion of Taiwan. The U.S. has not committed to defending Taiwan in such a scenario, leading to uncertainty about the country’s stance. However, war exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed that in a simulation where the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan formed an alliance against China, the invasion of Taiwan was successfully repelled, albeit with heavy casualties on all sides.
During the simulation, more than 10,000 casualties were reported, with the U.S. losing 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes, and over 3,000 troops killed. China suffered a significant loss as well, losing 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships, and 160 warplanes. The report emphasized the need for Taiwan to “hold the line” against a ground invasion, the importance of an immediate decision by the U.S. on defending Taiwan, the necessity of conducting military operations through Japan, and the urgent need to increase the supply of anti-ship missiles.
The simulation assumed a 2026 launch date for China’s invasion and operated under the assumption that the U.S. under President-elect Trump would come to Taiwan’s defense. The scenario highlighted the crucial role of Japan as a key ally in the fight against China, with recommendations to deepen U.S.-Japan diplomatic relations. However, concerns were raised about North Korea potentially taking advantage of the situation to invade South Korea.
The exercise also pointed out the challenges of arming Taiwan, given China’s anti-tank and anti-air missile capabilities. It was emphasized that U.S. forces would need to be directly involved in supplying Taiwan with necessary munitions. The report underscored the need for Taiwan to focus on smaller, more survivable ships and submarines, while the U.S. must ramp up production of key munitions to deter China from provoking war over Taiwan.
Adm. Samuel Paparo of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command expressed confidence in the U.S.’s ability to make it “exceedingly difficult” for China to mount a cross-strait invasion. The U.S. has been shifting its focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region, given China’s status as the most capable potential adversary in the world.
As tensions continue to rise in the region, the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan remains a significant concern. The U.S. and its allies are preparing for any eventuality, with a focus on strategic partnerships and military readiness to deter any aggressive actions by China.
