Biden admin publishes long-awaited LNG report as Trump prepares to take office

The Biden administration has released a draft report warning of potential negative impacts on Americans if the president’s moratorium on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is lifted. The report suggests that lifting the moratorium could lead to a 30% increase in energy prices and contribute to carbon emissions.

The study comes as President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office and follows President Biden’s decision to pause all new U.S. LNG exports to non-Free Trade Agreement countries. This decision was made in order to carefully consider the climate and economic impacts of a significant increase in LNG sales to countries in Asia and Europe. Trump has vowed to reverse Biden’s moratorium once he is in office.

The draft report, which is open for a 60-day comment period, predicts that U.S. LNG growth could result in a significant price increase for consumers in the near-term. It also highlights the potential negative impact on U.S. consumers, who could see energy prices rise by approximately $100 by 2050 due to higher demand.

The analysis also suggests that increasing LNG exports could lead to a substantial increase in CO2 equivalent emissions by 2050, equivalent to 25% of the nation’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. However, industry officials have pushed back on these claims, arguing that LNG can help offset coal consumption in other countries.

While the report acknowledges that increasing LNG exports could boost U.S. GDP by 0.2%, Energy Department officials caution that this may not necessarily benefit the broader public and consumer welfare. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has noted that while LNG exports could create wealth and jobs, they may also lead to higher domestic natural gas prices.

The report comes at a time when U.S. LNG sales are on the rise, with the U.S. becoming the world’s top LNG exporter in 2023. Current capacity is expected to double by the end of the decade, driven by ongoing projects. The recent conflict in Ukraine has also increased demand for U.S. LNG in Europe and Japan.

Industry groups have criticized the report, with the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) calling it politically motivated. NAM’s study found that nearly 1 million jobs could be at risk if the LNG pause remains in place. The American Gas Association also criticized the report, calling the Biden administration’s pause on LNG exports a mistake.

On the other hand, the environmental group Food & Water Watch has criticized the report for being weak and half-hearted. They urge President Biden to ban further LNG exports and reject pending LNG permits before leaving office.

President-elect Trump has promised to lift the LNG pause and increase U.S. energy exports once he takes office. He has pledged to cut energy prices in half within a year of his inauguration and plans to immediately lift Biden’s LNG pause after taking office.

Overall, the debate over LNG exports highlights the complex interplay between economic benefits, environmental concerns, and energy security. As the transition of power approaches, it remains to be seen how the incoming administration will address these issues.