After the puzzling warmth of Earth in 2023 and 2024, what could 2025 have in store?
The Earth’s temperature has experienced a slight decrease after 12 consecutive months of being 1.5 C above the 1850-1900 average. This change can be attributed in part to the conclusion of a natural cycle known as El Niño. In May, the global average temperature was reported to be 1.33 C above the pre-industrial average by Berkeley Earth and 1.40 C by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. Despite this drop, 2025 is still projected to be among the top three warmest years on record.
Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth stated that with El Niño phase over, it is highly improbable for 2025 to break any records. However, it is likely to be the second-warmest year on record. The month of May saw a significant decline in land surface temperatures compared to previous months but still ranked as the second warmest after 2024. Hausfather suggested that this drop could be due to internal variability coming to an end.
Ocean temperatures have also decreased following the conclusion of El Niño, but they remain near record highs. The average ocean temperature in May was 0.99 C above the 1850-1900 average. Carlo Buontempo from the Copernicus Climate Change Service noted a significant ocean heatwave in the North Atlantic, indicating ongoing warmth in the oceans.
While Earth temporarily reached a 1.5 C average temperature, it does not signify a failure in achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C. This target must be maintained over a more extended period, typically spanning 20 to 30 years. However, a recent study published in Earth System Science Data warned that if emissions continue at 2024 rates, the carbon budget to stay below the 1.5 C threshold will be exhausted in three years.
Climate scientists emphasize the importance of every tenth of a degree in the fight against climate change. To keep warming below 2 C, a concerted effort to reduce CO2 emissions is crucial. Antonio Gutteres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, has repeatedly highlighted the urgency of this issue. Despite the challenges, Buontempo remains optimistic, believing that with the wealth of information and tools available, we can make informed decisions to mitigate the impacts of rising temperatures.
In conclusion, while Earth’s temperature has shown a slight decline, the threat of climate change looms large. It is imperative for global leaders and individuals to take immediate action to curb emissions and limit the rise in temperatures to secure a sustainable future for our planet.
