B.C. economies ‘less exposed’ to potential U.S. tariffs: Canadian Chamber of Commerce

The recent data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce reveals that British Columbia cities would be among the least vulnerable in Canada if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with his tariff threats. While this is positive news for B.C., the chamber’s chief economist, Stephen Tapp, cautions that these tariffs would still have a recessionary impact on the entire country.

The Business Data Lab of the chamber analyzed Statistics Canada information from 41 cities across Canada with populations exceeding 100,000 residents. This data, unfortunately, does not encompass rural Canadians who also have a stake in Canada’s trade relations with the United States.

The study assessed the level of exports each city sends to the U.S. Kamloops, situated 253 kilometers northeast of Vancouver, emerged as the second most resilient city out of the 41 in the event of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Only about 2.3 percent of Kamloops’ GDP comes from exports to the U.S., significantly below the national average of 20 percent. UBC economist Ross Hickey acknowledged Kamloops’ advantageous position in not heavily relying on U.S. trade but noted that the city is missing out on an ideal trading partner.

Nanaimo, located 307 kilometers southwest of Kamloops on Vancouver Island, closely follows Kamloops in terms of resilience. U.S. exports account for approximately 4.1 percent of Nanaimo’s GDP, with just over 30 percent of its exports going to the United States. Other cities in B.C. such as Victoria, Kelowna, Vancouver, and Chilliwack also exhibit lower levels of tariff exposure. The only city in B.C. that could face a significant negative impact is Abbotsford-Mission, which ranked 15th out of 41 cities and is positioned along the Canada-U.S. border.

Tapp highlighted the regional variations but emphasized the benefits of B.C. economies having more trade with Asian markets and less dependence on the U.S. market. However, Hickey mentioned that B.C. already experienced challenges when softwood lumber tariffs increased last year. He also stressed the importance of considering how policies in the U.S. could lead to a recession there, subsequently affecting Canada’s economy.

In conclusion, while B.C. appears more insulated from potential tariffs, there are still concerns about the broader economic repercussions of U.S. policies. It is crucial to monitor the situation closely and hope for a resolution that benefits all trading partners involved.