Can Putin be trusted even if Trump secures peace deal with Ukraine?

Ukraine has taken a significant step towards ending the brutal war with Russia by agreeing to a preliminary proposal put forward by the Trump administration. This proposal calls for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s acceptance of the terms. However, the question remains – can Russian President Vladimir Putin be trusted to uphold any new treaty that may be negotiated?

Throughout history, Russia under Putin has repeatedly violated international agreements intended to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership were both violated in 2014 when Putin seized Crimea and backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. The subsequent Minsk Agreements aimed to end Russia’s aggression in the region, but were never fully achieved and were violated by Putin’s invasion in 2022.

Many security experts and world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, are skeptical of Putin’s reliability in adhering to any new agreement without serious security commitments from the West. The concern is that Russia only understands win-lose outcomes, and to prevent future aggression, they must see themselves as the losers in any potential conflict.

Negotiating with Putin poses numerous challenges, including disagreements over occupied territory, international recognition of lands, aid for Ukraine, and the return of prisoners and abducted children. Putin is unlikely to make concessions, as he believes he is in a strong position militarily and economically.

Ultimately, experts argue that Putin is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire as he does not want to give Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO a chance to re-arm. The key to deterring future aggression lies in making NATO strong again, increasing defense spending, and developing a comprehensive counter-strategy to address Putin’s tactics.

In conclusion, while Ukraine has taken a step towards peace, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Negotiating with Putin requires careful consideration and a clear understanding of his motives and actions. The trustworthiness of any future agreements will depend on the ability of the international community to hold Russia accountable and maintain a strong deterrent against future aggression.