As we approach a pivotal moment in Canada-U.S. history, with negotiations looming for a new economic and security partnership following the election, the direction of this partnership remains uncertain. However, we can speculate on U.S. goals based on recent public statements and longstanding demands.

Dairy Dispute: A Constant Issue

One of the most predictable U.S. demands is regarding dairy trade. President Trump has consistently raised this issue and is likely to push for increased market access for Wisconsin farmers, a crucial constituency for him.

Trade Grievances Beyond Dairy

Aside from dairy, the U.S. has other trade grievances, such as the digital services tax that penalizes American tech giants. Addressing these issues will be a priority in the upcoming negotiations.

Security Concerns: Military Spending and Arctic Presence

On the security front, the U.S. is expected to push for higher military spending from Canada, particularly in the Arctic region. Additionally, discussions on developing Canada’s critical minerals are likely to intensify.

Ballistic Missile Defence: A Potential Game Changer

One potential wildcard in the negotiations is ballistic missile defence. While Canada has historically resisted joining the program, recent signals from Ottawa suggest a possible shift in stance. As the U.S. seeks to modernize its missile defence program, this issue could become a significant point of contention.

Election Implications

While these issues are crucial for the Canada-U.S. partnership, they may not feature prominently in the election campaign. The major parties, including the Liberals and Conservatives, are likely to avoid discussing controversial topics like dairy access and missile defence to prevent potential voter backlash. In contrast, smaller parties like the Bloc Québécois and NDP may be more inclined to delve into these details.