Canada On Track To Beat Ambitious Immigration Target As Monthly Newcomers Rise 4.3%

The latest Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data reveals that after four consecutive months of declines, monthly immigration to Canada nudged back up a bit in October, rising by 4.3 per cent to 33,570 new permanent residents.

That compares to only 32,180 new permanent residents in September, the lowest monthly immigration level since April this year.

After rebounding from the April low of 29,550 new permanent residents, immigration rebounded in May, hitting 46,000 new permanent residents for that month.

Then, monthly immigration to Canada began a steady decline, falling first to 42,345 new permanent residents in June, then 40,690 new permanent residents in July, 35,075 in August and then dropping again in September.

That was a drop in the monthly immigration rate of 30.3 per cent in only five months.

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During the first 10 months of this year, Canada saw the arrival of 388,035 new permanent residents, a level of immigration that would put the country on track to welcome 485,844 new permanent residents by the end of this year provided the level of immigration continued through to the end of 2023.

That would put Canada a year ahead of schedule to hit its immigration target of 485,000 new permanent residents in 2024.

Under its 2023-2025 Immigration Levels Plan, Ottawa had set its immigration target for 2023 at 465,000 new permanent residents. The current level of immigration means Canada could end the year actually welcoming almost 4.5 per cent more newcomers than it had planned.

Under the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada is also planning to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and then hold the line on immigration in 2026 with another 500,000 newcomers.

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That’s a total of 1.485 million immigrants to Canada over those three years.

Given the growth of the Canadian population during those upcoming three years, the 2026 target for immigration to Canada actually represents a slight drop in the rate of immigration to the country, the first such decline in the immigration rate in years.

Ontario, the country’s most populous province, remained the most popular destination for newcomers in October with 177,550 of them choosing to immigrate there during the first 10 months of this year.

The central Canadian province was the destination of choice for 43.8 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the first 10 months of this year.

Economic programs, including the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP), Agri-Food Immigration Pilot (AFIP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Caregiver programs, Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP), Federal Skilled Trades (FST) and Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) programs, the Start-Up Visa (SUV) and Self-Employed Persons (SEP) programs, and the Temporary Resident to Permanent Resident Pathway accounted for a smidgeon more than half, 50.2 per cent, of all new permanent residents coming to Ontario in the first 10 months of this year.

Canada’s Most Populous Province Keeps On Attracting The Most Immigrants

Those programs helped 89,135 new permanent residents arrive in Ontario in the first 10 months of this year.

Another 48,705 new permanent residents arrived in Ontario through family sponsorships and 32,160 came to that province through Canada’s refugee and protected persons programs in the first 10 months of the year.

The other provinces and territories attracted the following number of new permanent residents each during that period:

• Newfoundland and Labrador – 4,650
• Prince Edward Island – 3,050
• Nova Scotia – 9,815
• New Brunswick – 9,200
• Quebec – 47,960
• Manitoba – 21,470
• Saskatchewan – 21,920
• Alberta – 48,055
• British Columbia – 60,105
• Yukon – 740
• Northwest Territories – 275
• Nunavut – 45

Despite the Quebec government’s repeated insistence that it will cap immigration at 50,000 new permanent residents this year, the francophone province is currently on track to welcome 57,552 new permanent residents based on the trend set in the first 10 months of this year.