Canada’s budget watchdog re-ran the numbers on the carbon tax – and found the same thing
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After making what it called an “inadvertent error,” Canada’s independent budget watchdog ran its analysis of the federal carbon tax and rebates a second time — and came to a similar conclusion.
Thursday’s updated report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) found that — considering the average household cost of paying the consumer fuel levy, the GST that’s charged and the indirect costs from the carbon tax — on average, households will see a net gain in 2030-31.
The report also said that, “broadly speaking,” its analysis showed larger net gains and lower net household costs than its previous study did.
But on average, the PBO said, households were worse off when the economic impact on GDP and investment income is considered.
“Given that the fuel charge lowers employment and investment income, which makes up a larger share of total income for higher-income households, their net cost is higher,” the PBO said on its website.
All Canadians outside Quebec and British Columbia pay the federal carbon tax on consumer fuels. Most also receive federal rebates.
The next rebate arrives in bank accounts on Tuesday.
Large emitters in the oil and gas, steel and other industries also pay the carbon price through a separate industrial, or output-based, pricing system.
With Canada’s carbon tax set to increase again on April 1, many Canadians have been asking questions about how it works and what the increase will cost. CBC’s David Thurton breaks down the policy, the price and the rebates.
Earlier this year, the PBO acknowledged that its original economic analysis of the federal carbon tax and rebates inadvertently included the industrial pricing system that applies to heavy emitters.
Consistent with previous reports, the PBO’s updated analysis does not account for the benefits of reducing emissions or the economic costs of climate change. It also does not estimate the impacts of alternative policies.
The Parliamentary Budget Office is a non-partisan government office serving MPs and senators. It produces economic and financial analyses for parliamentarians.
The federal carbon tax is a key political target for the Conservatives. Party leader Pierre Poilievre has been holding “axe the tax” rallies across the country and is calling for what he calls a “carbon tax” election.
The parliamentary budget officer released an updated analysis on the carbon tax Thursday, after it made an ‘inadvertent error’ in a previous analysis. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says his ‘focus is on axing the carbon tax’ when asked by a reporter about his plans for industrial carbon pricing.
Liberals have spent a lot of political capital defending the system. Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault said in a media statement Thursday the system gives more money back to Canadians through rebates than they lose to the carbon tax.
“This report is an important correction,” Guilbeault said. “It clears the air on Pierre Poilievre’s big lie and shows that carbon pricing is the most cost-effective way to fight climate change.”
Poilievre argues the consumer carbon price is making Canadians poorer.
“Today, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) once again confirmed that the NDP-Liberal carbon tax is impoverishing Canadians,” says a news release from the Conservative Party of Canada.
“This proves what Common Sense Conservatives have been saying all along – the carbon tax is nothing more than an expensive scam.”
The advocacy group Climate Action Network Canada said the political debate over carbon pricing misses the point.
“By continuing to focus on carbon pricing, we are collectively ignoring the elephant in the room: the costs of runaway climate change,” said Alex Cool-Fergus, the national policy manager for the network.
“With every heat wave and flood, Canadians are paying the real price of climate change. Devastating unnatural disasters are making life unaffordable for people.”
