Canada’s premiers anxious to maintain trade links with U.S. — no matter who wins the presidency

Canada’s premiers won’t say publicly if they’d prefer U.S. President Joe Biden or former president Donald Trump to return to the White House, but they are cheering for one outcome this November — the survival of the Canada-U.S. trading relationship.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said Tuesday there was “significant discussion” of the upcoming presidential election when he and his counterparts gathered behind closed doors in Halifax for the annual summer gathering of the Council of the Federation.

The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and more than $3.6 billion in goods and services cross the border daily.

“The discussion is around how we maintain that relationship,” said Houston, chair of this summer’s meeting. “There is a broader picture at play and it’s something that we’re all mindful of.”

Houston said provincial officials who travel to the U.S. on trade missions already meet with both Democrats and Republicans as “a matter of course.” He said to expect a renewed sales push on Canada’s critical mineral resources and energy capacity when Canadian trade teams next meet with governors and other U.S. officials.

“These are things that no matter who, no matter the administration, they are important to the United States and we can provide them in this country,” he said. “We need to keep focused on that.”

Trade deal up for review in the coming years 

The trading relationship has been in a precarious situation before.

Trump famously campaigned in 2016 on ripping up the former North American Free Trade Agreement, setting off panic across multiple levels of government.

While Canadian officials successfully renegotiated the North American trade agreement with Trump’s administration, saving Canada’s most important trade deal was never a sure thing.

The winner in November will lead the U.S. through the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), scheduled for 2026.

While the Biden administration staunchly opposes almost every word out of Trump’s mouth, it has maintained most of his trade policies.

“We’re facing a lot of challenges in the country as a new president will be elected,” said Ontario Premier Doug Ford Tuesday.

Houston said the premiers also discussed Canada’s obligations to NATO. Just last week, the Liberal government announced that it hopes to meet NATO’s military investment benchmark of two per cent of alliance members’ gross domestic products by 2032.

“How would certain U.S. administrations look on Canada if they weren’t to meet those obligations?” said Houston.

“Those types of discussions are on the minds of … premiers and on the minds of Canadians.”

Speaking in French, Quebec Premier François Legault raised the possibility that a Trump presidency could spur more immigration to Canada. The Republican was blamed for a surge in asylum seekers during his 2016-2020 term in office — although some researchers say the issue is more complicated than that.

Ahead of the meetings in Halifax, Legault encouraged his provincial counterparts to accept more asylum seekers. In a joint statement issued Tuesday, the premiers said they agreed to demand a “fair distribution” of asylum seekers based on the capacity of each province and territory to provide housing and services.

As the November election approaches, the federal government has been engaged in a “Team Canada” charm offensive in U.S. government circles to head off possible punitive trade measures.

One unanswered question is whether a re-elected Trump would deliver on his promise to impose worldwide tariffs on imported goods — and whether Canada would be included.

Ford said he’s the first to admit he didn’t always promote a team approach, but he’s changed his tune. 

“I’m probably the worst culprit when I told the governors ‘Buy Ontario,’ but I think we’re changing the language with the U.S. governors now they understand what an important trading partner we are,” he said.

“We need each other to be very frank. We need to work together at the end of the day.”