Canadians vote today after fierce campaign shaped by Trump
Millions of Canadians are expected to cast their ballots today in a pivotal election that will decide who will lead the country through a trade battle with the United States. The 36-day campaign has been nothing short of remarkable for the leading contenders: Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Just a few months ago, polls suggested Poilievre was all but guaranteed to snap up the majority government he’d long been waiting for, after Canadians soured on former prime minister Justin Trudeau. Then came Trudeau’s early January resignation, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and persistent barbs about making Canada the 51st state — flipping the political script.
With Trump announcing, pausing, then re-announcing devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign largely became a race about who is best to steer Canada through global uncertainty. While the overall margin between the two leading parties narrowed in the final stretch, polls suggest the race is the Liberal Party’s to lose.
According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, the Liberals maintain an edge in seat-rich Ontario, Quebec, as well as in B.C. and Atlantic Canada, and are favoured to win the most seats. But it’s far from a done deal and as the leaders and their teams have repeated throughout the campaign: the only poll that matters is on election day.
Carney tried to define himself as a steady, mature leader who is best to deal with the unpredictable president and map out a new economic and security relationship. While criss-crossing the country, the freshly minted leader pointed to his time as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years as evidence that Canadians should trust him to steer the country’s economy through turbulent times.
In one of his most repeated campaign speech lines, Carney argued that “Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us.” “And well, that will never happen,” he frequently told crowds that gathered to hear the political newbie speak. Carney has had a whirlwind 2025 so far. He handily won the Liberal leadership March 9 and was sworn in as prime minister just nine days before triggering an election.
Poilievre argued the election comes down to one word: change. Over the last five weeks the Conservative argued Carney is an extension of the last 10 years of Liberal rule, routinely pointing to Carney’s position as Trudeau’s economic adviser as proof. “After the lost Liberal decade of rising crime, chaos, drugs and disorder, we cannot risk a fourth Liberal term. We have to reverse the policies that got us into this mess,” he said.
Singh, fronting his third campaign as leader, has been dogged by questions about the NDP’s poor polling and his future since the campaign started. He pushed back, arguing that sending NDP MPs to the House of Commons in a minority government will keep the next government in check and “improve people’s lives.” Singh is quick to point out his deal with Trudeau pushed the Liberals to bring in pharmacare and a dental care programs, policies that New Democrats have sought for years.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has also been working to hold the balance of power in the House, with his home province once again proving to be an important battleground for deciding the final outcome. The separatist party only runs candidates in Quebec and its mandate has long been to act as a voice for Quebecers in Ottawa.
The first results are expected to trickle in from the Atlantic provinces just after 7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET. The majority of votes will be counted after that, with the final results likely not known until late into the night. It’s shaping up to be a tight race with high stakes for the future of the country.
