Why Quebec could once again tip the balance in this federal election

At a casse-croûte on Montreal’s South Shore, Anne-Marie Pinot is enjoying a lunchtime poutine as she settles in for a meal. A long-time voter who has supported various political parties over the years, Pinot has made the decision to vote for the Bloc Québécois in the upcoming election. Her concern stems from the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump and the potential impact on Quebec in trade negotiations without a strong local voice.

Motivated by her 18-year-old daughter, who is also a Bloc supporter, Pinot believes that supporting the sovereigntist party is essential to protecting the Quebec economy. As she snaps a selfie with Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who made a stop in the hotly contested riding of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, Pinot emphasizes the importance of having a strong Quebec voice in Ottawa.

Blanchet has been facing challenges in this campaign, as the shadow of Trump looms large over Quebec. Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of a polling firm, notes that identity and cultural issues have not been as prominent in this election compared to previous ones, making it harder for the Bloc to stand out.

The latest polls suggest that the Liberals could potentially win the majority of seats in Quebec, with the Bloc trailing behind. Blanchet has been emphasizing the need for the Bloc to secure enough seats to represent Quebec’s interests in Ottawa, especially in the face of threats from the U.S.

While the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP have all been trying to shore up support in Quebec, the issue of Trump’s influence remains a central theme in the campaign. Analysts like Daniel Béland point out that the path created by Trump’s threats has favored the Liberals, making it challenging for the Bloc and Conservatives to shift the narrative.

As the campaign nears its end, voters in Quebec are expressing concerns about affordability, the economy, and the environment. Cost of living, job security, and Quebec’s place in Canada are among the top priorities for residents like Marianne Boisclair, Robert Lauzon, and Evelyne Gauvin.

In the final stretch of the campaign, the fate of the Bloc Québécois remains uncertain. Polls suggest that the party could be vulnerable, and its seat count could ultimately impact the outcome of the election. With Trump’s influence still looming over the political landscape, the Bloc’s performance in this election will be crucial in determining the future of Quebec’s representation in Ottawa.