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Did we surpass 1.5 C of warming in 2024? It depends on who you ask

In recent news, six climate agencies from across the globe have confirmed what many have feared: Earth has once again experienced its hottest year on record. However, the degree to which it surpassed the 1.5 C threshold above the pre-industrial average varies depending on which climate agency’s data you look at.

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures exceeding 1.6 C above the pre-industrial average. NASA’s data, on the other hand, showed that 2024 was 1.47 C warmer, while NOAA found it to be 1.46 C warmer. Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization, reported that 2024 was 1.62 C warmer than the pre-industrial average.

Despite the slight discrepancies in the exact temperature readings, all agencies agree that the past decade has been the warmest on record. The World Meteorological Organization, after reviewing analyses from various agencies, concluded that we have likely surpassed the 1.5 C warming threshold in 2024.

While 2024 may be the first calendar year to breach the 1.5 C mark set by the Paris Agreement, experts emphasize that this does not mean the agreement has been broken. The commitment to keeping global warming below 1.5 C of the pre-industrial average applies to sustained periods of elevated temperatures, not just individual years.

The impacts of climate change are already being felt worldwide, with extreme weather events contributing to thousands of deaths and displacements in 2024 alone. The trend of rising temperatures has led to more intense rainfall, heatwaves, and rising sea levels, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate change.

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Looking ahead, experts predict that Earth’s temperature will continue to rise steadily, even if 2025 starts off slightly cooler due to a La NiƱa advisory. While the exact timing of when we will definitively surpass the Paris Agreement threshold remains uncertain, the overall trajectory points towards exceeding 1.5 C within the next decade.

As we grapple with the consequences of a warming planet, it is essential to heed the warnings of climate scientists and take action to mitigate further environmental damage. The relentless upward trend in temperatures serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for sustainable practices and policies to combat climate change before it’s too late.

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