Do the Liberals have a hope of reclaiming Regina-Wascana this election?

As the federal election approaches, political experts are predicting that the Conservative Party of Canada will maintain its stronghold in Saskatchewan. However, there is potential for the Liberals to make gains in a few key ridings in the province. Currently, all 14 federal electoral districts in Saskatchewan are held by Conservative MPs, a trend that has been in place since 2019.

One riding that experts have identified as a possible target for the Liberals is Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River. Additionally, Regina-Wascana is another seat that could be up for grabs in the upcoming election. Both Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, and Éric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of thewrit.ca, believe that the Liberals could mount a strong challenge in Regina-Wascana.

Regina-Wascana has been a Liberal stronghold for 25 years, largely due to the popularity of former MP Ralph Goodale. Goodale, who served in various government positions under Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin, and Justin Trudeau, was defeated by Conservative candidate Michael Kram in the 2019 election. Without a high-profile candidate like Goodale, winning Regina-Wascana will be a tough task for the Liberals.

Recent polls conducted in Saskatchewan show strong support for the Conservative Party across the province. While the Liberals may be gaining ground in urban areas, experts believe that it may not be enough to secure a victory in ridings like Regina-Wascana. The absence of specific polling data for Regina makes predicting the outcome challenging, but the overall trend favors the Conservatives.

Despite the NDP’s success in the provincial election, experts do not expect a similar outcome in the federal election. Differences in electoral geography and the potential for a vote split among progressive voters make winning seats more difficult for both the Liberals and the NDP. In federal elections, voters tend to make different choices compared to provincial elections, leading to a more challenging political landscape.

Regina-Wascana covers a significant area in southeast Regina, with a population of 89,063 people. The riding is characterized by a mix of suburban and urban areas, with a diverse electorate. Five candidates will be on the ballot in Regina-Wascana, representing the People’s Party of Canada, the Green Party, the Conservative Party, the NDP, and the Liberal Party.

In conclusion, while the Conservative Party is expected to maintain its dominance in Saskatchewan, the upcoming election presents an opportunity for the Liberals to make inroads in key ridings like Regina-Wascana. With the absence of a popular incumbent like Ralph Goodale, the Liberals face an uphill battle in reclaiming the seat. The outcome of the election will ultimately be determined by voter preferences and shifting political dynamics in the province.