Obesity will affect over half of adults in 25 years, study predicts

Obesity has long been classified as a global epidemic, and new data published in The Lancet journal spotlights how much worse it could get. A team of researchers found that in 2021, one billion men and 1.11 billion women over 25 years of age worldwide qualified as overweight or obese — twice as many as in 1990.

In 2021, more than half of the world’s overweight and obese adults lived in eight countries: China, India, the U.S., Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt. The study projects that if the increase continues at the same pace, more than half of men and women will be overweight or obese by 2050.

The three countries expected to have the highest rates of overweight or obesity by 2050 are China, India, and the U.S. The study also found that by 2050, nearly one-quarter of obese adults will be 65 or older.

The researchers analyzed data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, spanning 204 countries and territories. Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, stated, “The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.”

The study warns that more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones, leading to an increased risk of developing obesity-related conditions like type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and multiple cancers. The researchers emphasized the need for immediate intervention and treatment in populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity.

However, there are limitations to the study, including the reliance on self-reported data and the use of BMI as the measure of overweight and obesity. The study did not take into account the effects of anti-obesity medications and other interventions.

Brett Osborn, a Florida neurosurgeon and longevity expert, highlighted obesity as the single greatest modifiable threat to longevity, economic stability, and national security. He emphasized the importance of personal responsibility, stating that obesity is caused by caloric surplus and lack of movement.

Osborn warned that if obesity-related diseases continue to rise as projected, healthcare systems worldwide will be crippled. The economic burden will exceed $4 trillion per year, making it unsustainable for the healthcare system to support preventable, self-inflicted diseases.

The fight against obesity is not about aesthetics but about survival. Osborn urged for aggressive action to combat obesity and prevent the unfathomable consequences that could arise in the future.

The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and conducted by the GBD 2021 Adolescent and Adult BMI Collaborators. The researchers stress the urgency of addressing the obesity crisis and taking proactive measures to prevent its devastating effects on global health.