Here’s how the US and Israel could thwart Iran’s nuclear efforts under a new Trump administration

President-elect Trump is set to take office at a critical time as Iran edges closer to becoming the world’s 10th nuclear-armed state. The approach that Trump will take towards Iran remains unclear, but his past actions and appointments suggest a combative stance.

During his previous term, Trump implemented a “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at bankrupting the Iranian regime. His pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio, has a history of taking a hardline stance against Iran in the Senate. After Iran launched missiles towards Tel Aviv, Rubio emphasized the need for maximum pressure to curb Iran’s activities.

There are concerns that Trump’s administration could reinstate and eliminate waivers for oil sanctions, as well as threaten countries that engage in business with Iran. Rep. Michael Waltz, Trump’s choice for national security adviser, has also advocated for strong measures against Iran, including targeting their oil facilities and nuclear plants.

While Trump has expressed a desire for friendly relations with Iran, he has made it clear that he will not tolerate Iran possessing nuclear weapons. His administration may consider military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially in response to Iran’s recent activation of advanced centrifuges.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a significant challenge, both politically and technologically. While Iran has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the process of weaponization could take up to a year. International sanctions, COVID-19, and attacks on Iranian facilities have hindered Iran’s nuclear progress.

The prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could trigger a regional arms race and threaten Iran’s goal of regional dominance. The U.S. and Israel would likely respond militarily to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

There is uncertainty about how Iran will approach the U.S. relationship under Trump’s administration. While there have been discussions about easing tensions, maximum pressure is expected to be a key strategy. Israel may consider striking Iranian facilities, but the logistical challenges of such a mission are significant.

The U.S. is also looking to strengthen alliances in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia, to counter Iran’s influence. However, the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a key issue in this regard.

As Trump prepares to take office, the situation with Iran remains volatile. The new administration will need to navigate complex geopolitical challenges and make strategic decisions to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.