Iranian regime collapse possible but replacement remains uncertain
As the Iranian regime faces sustained Israeli strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, the possibility of its collapse is becoming increasingly real. The question now is not if the regime will end, but what will come next. Will Iran move towards a freer future, or will it descend into instability?
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, recently stated that sources inside Iran suggest that the regime’s command and control structures are rapidly deteriorating. He also noted that discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun. This signals a shift in thinking about the future of the country.
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized the importance of preparing for a potential regime collapse. He noted that both the Iranian opposition and Western governments have been reluctant to engage with the idea of regime change. Without a clear political strategy in place, they are unprepared for what may come next.
Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, outlined four possible scenarios for the future of Iran. The first scenario involves a collapse from within, where elements of the regime rebel against the leadership. The second scenario envisions a popular uprising sparked by the release of political prisoners. The third scenario suggests the return of exiled leaders to rally the population. The fourth and worst scenario is the survival of the current regime, leading to a more repressive future.
The role of Iran’s non-Persian communities, such as the Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds, is also a crucial factor in shaping the country’s future. Aref Al-Kaabi, executive president of the State of Ahwaz, emphasized the need for trust-building between these communities and the Persian opposition. Without unity among these groups, meaningful change will remain elusive.
As the situation in Iran continues to evolve, it is essential for the international community to support a peaceful transition towards a more democratic and inclusive future. The Iranian people deserve a government that respects their rights and freedoms, and it is up to all stakeholders to work together towards that goal.
