Is prorogation coming? What 2025 could look like for the Liberal government
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly taking time during the holidays to reflect on his future following the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The unexpected move has sparked renewed calls for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader, both from within the caucus and from external sources.
As MPs prepare to return to the House of Commons on Jan. 27, the Liberal government’s hold on power seems uncertain. The NDP, a key ally of the minority government since the 2021 election, has withdrawn its support for the Liberals.
Here are some potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks:
Prorogation: The government may seek prorogation to halt all House of Commons business, regardless of Trudeau’s decision to resign as Liberal leader. If approved by Gov. Gen. Mary Simon, all pending legislation would effectively come to a standstill. A new throne speech upon the House’s reconvening would outline the government’s legislative priorities, with the possibility of reviving previously ongoing bills. This move is reminiscent of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament in 2008 to avoid a non-confidence vote.
Non-confidence vote: The Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP have all expressed readiness to bring down the Liberal government through a non-confidence motion. If such a motion passes in the House of Commons, it could trigger an immediate election campaign. Conservative MP John Williamson plans to introduce a non-confidence motion through the public accounts committee, potentially leading to a vote as early as Jan. 30. The NDP has also indicated its intention to bring forward a non-confidence motion, regardless of Trudeau’s leadership status.
Liberal leadership contest: Should Trudeau heed calls to step down as Liberal leader, a leadership contest would ensue. According to the Liberal party constitution, a meeting must be convened within 27 days of the leader’s resignation to establish contest rules and logistics. The Liberal caucus may be consulted on selecting an interim leader. Candidates must secure necessary signatures and submit a nomination letter at least 90 days before the vote. All registered Liberal members can vote, with ballots weighted equally across electoral districts.
Trudeau’s decision: The Liberal party lacks a mechanism for caucus to remove Trudeau as leader, giving him the sole authority to decide his future. If he chooses to remain in his role, he could lead the party into the next election, which must occur by October. However, with opposition parties vowing to trigger an early election, Canadians may face a trip to the polls sooner than expected. Polls indicate the Liberals face a challenging path to securing a fourth mandate, as the Conservatives have maintained a significant lead in public opinion for over a year.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the upcoming weeks are sure to bring significant developments and potential shifts in Canada’s leadership and governance. Stay tuned for further updates on this unfolding situation.
