L.A. fire conditions made 35 per cent more likely thanks to climate change, researchers say

The recent fires that ravaged neighborhoods in Los Angeles, resulting in the loss of 28 lives and over 16,000 homes and buildings, are not isolated incidents, according to a new rapid analysis. Researchers now warn that these devastating fires are becoming increasingly likely due to the impacts of climate change.

The heart-wrenching images of fires engulfing city blocks in one of North America’s largest cities underscore just how close the climate crisis is bringing extreme weather events to communities. The latest study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group reveals that the conditions that fueled the fires in Los Angeles were about 35% more likely compared to pre-industrial times.

If global warming continues unchecked, the likelihood of such fire conditions will increase by another 35% by the year 2100. This grim projection paints a dire picture for the future of Los Angeles and Southern California as a whole.

Clair Barnes, a co-author of the WWA report and a researcher at Imperial College London, emphasized the urgent need for a swift transition away from fossil fuels to mitigate the escalating risks associated with climate change. The study, conducted by a team of 32 international researchers, utilized global climate models to project how weather conditions driving the fires have evolved since pre-industrial times.

The delayed onset of winter rains emerged as a critical factor contributing to the extension of the fire season in California. John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California Merced and study co-author, highlighted the compounding effects of prolonged dry conditions following years of increased rainfall, leading to an abundance of flammable vegetation.

The report indicates that low rainfall from October to December is now 2.4 times more likely, heightening the risk of dry, fire-prone vegetation. These dry conditions are increasingly aligning with the strong Santa Ana winds, exacerbating the spread of wildfires in the region.

In essence, climate change has created a perfect storm by delaying rains, intensifying dry conditions, and fueling strong winds that drive fires to unprecedented levels of destruction. The study predicts that such conditions will occur more frequently as global temperatures continue to rise.

As the dry, fire-prone conditions persist in Southern California, the risk to cities like Los Angeles continues to mount. Abatzoglou hopes that the recent devastating fires serve as a wake-up call for the state to prepare for future occurrences.

In conclusion, the escalating threats posed by climate change underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. The lessons learned from the recent fires in Los Angeles must guide policymakers towards implementing sustainable solutions to safeguard communities from future disasters.