Liberal MPs prepare to face constituents this summer in the middle of a polling slump
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As MPs prepare to return to their ridings for the summer, some Liberals are acknowledging that they may be facing unhappy constituents, while others insist they aren’t focused on the party’s grim poll numbers.
Ipsos, Angus Reid and Abacus all released surveys this week that suggest the opposition Conservatives have a 20-point lead over the governing party.
“We’re swimming into the tide. It’s tough,” P.E.I. MP Sean Casey told reporters on Parliament Hill on Wednesday.
“We’re doing good things. It seems the electorate has tuned out.”
When asked if there is anything the Liberals can do to turn their polling fortunes around, Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan said “there’s no magic formula.”
“Just work harder and just make sure you get the word out on the work that you are doing,” he said.
Casey said he plans to return to his riding for the summer and speak to constituents one-on-one in order to make the case for his party.
“It’s frustrating when you’re swimming into the tide, but that’s a function of politics, that’s life. I’m not going to work any less,” he said.
Health Minister Mark Holland, Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan, P.E.I. MP Sean Casey, Liberal Government House Leader Steve MacKinnon and Ontario MP Adam van Koeverden explain how they are going to spend their summer reaching out to constituents in their ridings.
When asked what the Liberals could do to turn their polling numbers around over the summer, House leader Steve MacKinnon offered a gardening metaphor.
“We have to pick up our shovels and our picks and our hoes every day and go to work and deliver results for Canadians,” he said.
Quebec MP Anthony Housefather considered leaving the party earlier this spring over the caucus’s support for an NDP motion on Palestinian statehood. He said he’s prepared to push his personal candidacy in the next election.
“I’m going to be convincing my constituents they should still be voting for me. You vote for a person on the ballot, not the party,” he said when asked what he would be saying to constituents over the summer.
Trudeau says Canadians ‘not in decision mode’ right now
In an exclusive interview with CBC News Network’s Power and Politics on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the polls shouldn’t matter until an election campaign starts.
“Canadians are not in a decision mode right now,” Trudeau told host David Cochrane.
“What you tell a pollster, if they ever manage to reach you, is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadians ‘are pragmatic people who focus on solutions’ when asked by CBC’s Power and Politics host David Cochrane about polls suggesting Canadians’ frustrations with him and the prospects of losing to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Some Liberal MPs took a similar line when speaking to reporters on Wednesday.
“I don’t really pay attention to the polls. I connect with my constituents organically,” Ontario MP Adam van Koeverden said.
“If we’re focused on polls, we’re focused on the wrong things,” Health Minister Mark Holland said.
“We need to govern. The time for politics is when there’s an election.”
The Liberals will be facing an electoral challenge next week when residents of the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding vote in a byelection.
The riding has elected Liberals since the 1990s. Former cabinet minister (and current ambassador to Denmark) Carolyn Bennett held the riding from 1997 to 2024.
Polling expert Philippe Fournier of 338Canada told Power & Politics earlier this month that despite the Liberals’ strong results in 2021 — when Bennett won over half of the vote — there is a risk they might lose the riding in the byelection.
“We should consider this riding as a tossup, with a slight lean to the Liberals,” he said. “Of course there’s some uncertainty in the numbers, but we expect the Liberals to win by a margin of between four and eight points.”
