New Democrats say they see opportunity in Liberals’ Toronto byelection loss

An NDP insider says New Democrats were surprised by the Liberals’ loss in the recent Toronto byelection — and now see the governing party’s weakness as an opportunity.

Anne McGrath, principal secretary to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in the House of Commons, told CBC News the party thought the outcome of the Toronto St Paul’s byelection would be close but not a Conservative upset.

“So it was a bit of a surprise, I think, for everybody,” she said, adding that the Liberals’ byelection loss in a former party stronghold has intensified the debate within the Liberal Party about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future.

One sitting Liberal MP has called for Trudeau to step aside. Another has warned that Liberal incumbents could bow out of the next election if Trudeau stays on.

Last last month, Catherine McKenna, who served as environment minister under Trudeau, became the first former member of his cabinet to call for his resignation. Liberal MPs have been calling for an emergency meeting of the full caucus to discuss the byelection result; Liberal caucus chair Brenda Shanahan has rejected those calls.

The internal strife within the Liberal caucus has created a leadership vacuum at a time when Canadians need help, McGrath said.

“Canadians are experiencing this really heightened level of anxiety about the cost of living and how to live,” she said. “The Liberal Party seems to be spending a lot of time talking about whether they should have a meeting or not.”

McGrath said the NDP will have an opportunity to talk to Canadians over the summer about things like grocery prices and the high cost of shelter.

“It is very fair to say that [the Liberals] are quite distracted right now. I don’t think anybody can deny that,” she said. “This summer is an opportunity to connect and reconnect with voters to hear what they have to say. And that’s what we will be doing.”

Singh kicks off his summer tour on Saturday with a town hall in the Liberal riding of Vancouver Granville.

According to several party sources who are not authorized to speak publicly, he’s expected to host town halls in St. John’s, Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Edmonton and Vancouver. The sources said Singh’s summer touring plans are not yet set in stone.

The sources point out that many of these cities have ridings previously held by the NDP, or ones where New Democrats have been competitive.

“These regions can be a good indication of where we are seeing potential for growth in the next election,” a senior NDP source said.

Party sources say they hope to connect with Canadians who feel they’re working harder for less in an economy stacked in favour of big banks, cell companies and grocery chains.

“Things need to change,” Singh says in a new social media ad. “Everything is so expensive … And it’s not your fault. The deck is stacked against you.”

Singh also attacks Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in that ad, accusing him of offering more power to corporate Canada.

“He wants to cut the services that you still have left,” Singh says in the ad.

NDP MPs and staffers tell CBC News they feel good after a spring sitting that saw the House of Commons pass bills to restrict the use of replacement workers during a strike, help workers transition to a low-carbon economy, establish a pharmacare program and launch subsidized dental care for seniors, children and people with disabilities.

The party argues electing the Conservatives would put these gains at risk.

All these items are components of the confidence and supply agreement the party has in place with the governing Liberals. Under that agreement, the NDP caucus supports Liberal budgets and other key pieces of legislation in exchange for the government advancing New Democrats’ policy priorities.

The party is going into the next election without at least six of its incumbent MPs: Randall Garrison, Rachel Blaney, Richard Cannings, Charlie Angus, Carol Hughes and Daniel Blaikie.

Garrison, Angus and Cannings are retiring. Blaney is stepping aside to spend more time with family. Blaikie took a job with Manitoba’s NDP Premier Wab Kinew. Hughes’ riding is disappearing after changes were made to the electoral map.

McGrath has said Singh will spend some time this summer defending Blaikie’s Winnipeg seat in Elmwood—Transcona. The party is also preparing for a yet-to-be-announced byelection in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.

The riding was held by former Liberal cabinet minister David Lametti, who stepped aside. The NDP has what it considers a star candidate in the riding: city councillor Craig Sauvé.

The party placed third in the riding in 2021.

The party also plans to showcase some of its new candidates alongside Singh during his summer tour. They include St. John’s East’s Mary Shortall, Halifax Centre’s Lisa Roberts, Edmonton Centre’s Trisha Estabrooks and Kelvin Kotchilea in the Northwest Territories.

Two other high-profile NDP candidates — Clare Hacksel in Toronto Danforth and Spadina Fort-York’s Norm Di Pasquale — are expected to attend events with Singh over the summer.

While she said her party sees good prospects in Toronto after the Liberal byelection loss, McGrath also acknowledged the NDP’s share of the vote in Toronto-St. Paul’s dropped by five per cent.

McGrath attributed that weak performance to voters bent on rebuking the Liberals.

“It appears that many people took advantage of the opportunity to send a message to the government. And that often happens in byelections,” she said.