New poll finds Conservative support slightly ahead of Liberals for first time in months

A Shift in National Voter Intention: Conservatives Edge Ahead of Liberals in New Poll

A recent survey has revealed a significant change in national voter intention, with the Conservative Party pulling ahead of the Liberals for the first time since the election.

According to the latest Abacus Data poll, 41 per cent of decided voters would now vote for the Conservatives, up one percentage point, while Liberal support has dropped to 39 per cent, a decrease of four points since the beginning of the month.

It should be noted that these results do not take into account Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s recent victory in the Alberta byelection, as it occurred towards the end of the polling period.

Despite these changes, Prime Minister Carney maintains a favourability rating of +18, while Poilievre’s rating remains at -2.

The shift in voter intention seems to be linked to the fact that many Canadians are more concerned about domestic issues such as the rising cost of living, rather than external factors like U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariff threats.

The poll reveals that 60 per cent of Canadians view the increasing cost of living as their top concern, followed by the broader economy, housing affordability, and healthcare – all areas where the Conservatives currently hold an advantage over the Liberals.

While Trump remains a concern for some Canadians, with 38 per cent citing him as a top issue, a majority (56 per cent) still prefer the Liberals when it comes to managing relations with the unpredictable American leader.

Abacus CEO David Coletto commented on the findings, stating, “The Carney government maintains strong approval ratings, with Prime Minister Carney retaining personal popularity. However, the growing concerns over the cost of living and housing affordability may be starting to impact this support.”

The poll was conducted from August 15 to 19, surveying 1,915 Canadians with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.