Poilievre says a government report predicts a ‘terrifying’ 2040. Here’s what it actually says

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently seized on a government report to highlight what he sees as a bleak future if the Liberals were to win a fourth term. The report in question, released by Policy Horizons, explores the possibility of a decline in social mobility by 2040. Poilievre, after unveiling his party’s costed platform, emphasized the report’s findings, painting a grim picture of economic depression and societal breakdown if the current trajectory is maintained.

However, a closer look at the report reveals a more nuanced perspective. Titled “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question,” the report does not aim to predict the future but rather presents a scenario where downward social mobility could become increasingly common. It suggests a future where post-secondary education may no longer guarantee social advancement, inheritance becomes the primary means of getting ahead, and owning a home becomes unattainable for many due to economic shifts caused by artificial intelligence.

The report also discusses potential policy implications of this scenario, both positive and negative. It highlights challenges such as increased financial stress, mental health issues, and a shrinking consumer economy. It also suggests that alternative forms of meeting basic needs, such as co-operatives for housing, food, childcare, and healthcare, may become more prevalent.

Despite the grim outlook presented in the report, the authors stress that social stagnation and downward mobility are not inevitable. They encourage policymakers to consider these potential challenges and opportunities to inform future decision-making. The report also suggests that a loss of belief in traditional forms of social mobility could pave the way for redefining prosperity and focusing on policies that promote human flourishing in areas like healthcare, housing, the environment, and education.

In a statement to CBC News, a spokesperson for Policy Horizons emphasized that the report is meant to assist in governmental planning and is not a forecast or commentary on current policies. It is designed to help policymakers navigate potential disruptions, seize opportunities, and minimize risks in the face of uncertain future trends.

While the report may sound alarming at first glance, it serves as a valuable tool for strategic planning and foresight. By considering a range of possible futures, policymakers can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The report’s exploration of social mobility and its implications offers important insights for shaping policies that can support a more resilient and equitable society in the years to come.