Poll of Sask. voters has Conservatives maintaining strong support, but Liberals gaining ground
A recent poll of Saskatchewan voters has revealed a surprising shift in support, with growing numbers of residents in Saskatoon and Regina showing increased backing for the federal Liberals. This surge in support has made some races in these cities more competitive, challenging the traditionally strong Conservative hold on the province.
The poll, commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy, surveyed 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10 via an online survey. The results, weighted to reflect the age and gender distribution of the province, showed that 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25 per cent would vote for the Liberal Party of Canada. Additionally, 20 per cent of voters were undecided, and 11 per cent supported the federal NDP.
In both Saskatoon and Regina, Conservative support among decided voters is declining as Liberal support rises, with the two parties now within five points of each other. In Regina, 42 per cent of decided voters backed the Conservatives, compared to 37 per cent supporting the Liberals. Meanwhile, Saskatoon saw a split of 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals.
The swing in support and the decline in NDP backing have made the Liberals more competitive in certain ridings, potentially allowing them to challenge Conservative incumbents. However, according to Éric Grenier, who runs CBC’s election poll tracker, the Liberals are not yet considered the favorites to win more than one seat in southern Saskatchewan.
The poll also delved into leader likeability, top policy issues, and Canada’s trade war with the U.S. Notably, voters in Saskatchewan are weighing party leaders’ abilities to handle President Donald Trump’s trade threats, with 54 per cent prioritizing protecting Canada over defeating the Liberals. This emphasis on economic issues and trade relations underscores the province’s reliance on exports like uranium, potash, and energy.
SUMA president Randy Goulden emphasized the need for economic growth, calling for the elimination of inter-provincial trade barriers and the exploration of new export markets for Saskatchewan goods. These policy issues are crucial for addressing residents’ concerns around affordability and the impact of international trade disputes on the provincial economy.
The poll results have caught the attention of political observers, with David Herle of Rubicon Strategy noting that the Liberals are now within striking distance of Conservatives in key ridings like Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-University, Regina-Wascana, and Regina-Lewvan. This shift in support reflects the changing political landscape in Saskatchewan and sets the stage for a potentially more competitive federal election in the province.
Overall, the poll results highlight the evolving dynamics of Saskatchewan politics and the growing influence of economic issues and trade relations on voter preferences. As the federal election approaches, the province’s residents are closely evaluating party leaders’ responses to key policy challenges, making the outcome of the election in Saskatchewan more unpredictable than in previous years.
