More hurricanes expected this year, but that doesn’t mean more will hit Atlantic Canada
The National Hurricane Center in the U.S. has recently announced its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 60 per cent probability of an above-average season. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those reaching Category 3 or higher to become major hurricanes. This year’s forecast predicts 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
The reasons for the above-average outlook include neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific, which means there will be no El Niño to impede Atlantic hurricane development by strengthening trade winds. Additionally, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin are a concern because ocean heat fuels tropical cyclones. There is also a northern shift of the West African monsoon, where many strong Atlantic storms originate as tropical waves.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, peaking in late August and September. Atlantic Canada is particularly vulnerable to strong storms during this peak period. While an above-average Atlantic hurricane season does not necessarily translate to more activity in Atlantic Canada, past seasons have shown that even average seasons can bring significant impacts. For example, in the record-breaking 2020 season with 30 named storms, only Teddy made landfall in Atlantic Canada, causing minimal damage. Conversely, the 2022 season, with 14 named storms, saw Fiona wreak havoc in Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm.
As we prepare for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, it is crucial for residents in hurricane-prone areas, including Atlantic Canada, to stay informed and have a plan in place to ensure their safety during potential storms. By remaining vigilant and prepared, we can mitigate the impact of these natural disasters and protect our communities.
