Trump’s ‘denuclearization’ suggestion with Russia and China: How would it work?

Amid a wave of early shakeups in the new administration, President Donald Trump has twice this month proposed “denuclearization” talks with U.S. adversaries. Trump made these remarks during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he expressed concern about the amount of money being spent on nuclear weapons and the destructive capacity they possess.

The President’s proposal for denuclearization talks with Russia and China could potentially lead to a major thaw in U.S. relations with these global adversaries. However, there are concerns about whether the U.S. can trust these nations to uphold their end of the deal. Putin recently announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the New START treaty in 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine as the reason. China, on the other hand, has never engaged in negotiations with the U.S. over arms reduction.

During an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump revealed that he had been close to reaching a denuclearization deal with Russia during his first term. He emphasized the importance of reducing the number of nuclear weapons as they are dangerous and expensive. The Defense Department estimates that China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads in the near future, nearly doubling their current arsenal.

While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed skepticism about the possibility of arms control negotiations with the U.S., Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a more diplomatic tone, welcoming the desire to restore direct contacts with Russia. Similarly, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun emphasized China’s commitment to peaceful development and friendly cooperation with all countries.

Experts argue that Russia may be using its leverage over nuclear arms control as a means to secure favorable terms to end the war in Ukraine. However, it remains unclear whether Trump’s comments at Davos reflect a policy priority or were made on a whim. The President faced criticism during his first term for meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to discuss nuclear reduction, which ultimately fell apart.

One thing experts agree on is that the U.S. nuclear program is expensive and outdated. The U.S. is expected to spend $756 billion between 2023 and 2032 to store and maintain its nuclear weapons. While Russia has a history of cheating on arms treaties, U.S. intelligence capabilities have improved to monitor compliance effectively.

In addition to Russia and China, North Korea and Iran also pose nuclear threats. North Korea is estimated to have 50 nuclear warheads, while Iran is on the verge of enriching uranium to levels potent enough for a bomb. Before engaging in arms control talks, the U.S. needs a strategy to deter these peer nuclear competitors, as well as states like North Korea and Iran.

In conclusion, the proposal for denuclearization talks with U.S. adversaries marks a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. Despite the challenges and uncertainties surrounding such negotiations, the goal of reducing the number of nuclear weapons is crucial for global security and stability. It is essential for the U.S. to navigate these discussions carefully and prioritize national security interests while seeking to build trust with its adversaries.