Takeaways from Election Day 2024
Donald Trump has completed a paradigm-shattering political comeback, winning the White House in an election shaped more by Americans’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the country than by Democrats’ dire warnings of the threat the 45th and soon-to-be 47th president poses to its founding principles. In a repeat of his 2016 victory, Trump once again broke through the “blue wall.” He defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania and was leading in two more Great Lakes swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin. He also romped in the Sun Belt battlegrounds, winning Georgia and North Carolina and leading in Arizona and Nevada.
Trump made gains with nearly every demographic group compared with his 2020 loss, CNN’s exit polls showed. And his apparent near-mirroring of the 2016 map would indicate that he paid no political price for his lies about fraud in that election, his efforts to overturn it, or the criminal charges he has faced since then. He is now poised to return to office with a Republican Senate majority, easing his path to confirming his choices for key government posts. It’s not yet clear which party will control the House.
Democrats, meanwhile, will be forced to confront difficult questions about the direction of the party — on the issues, and on its appeal to critical segments of the electorate, particularly the Latinos whose realignment could reshape American politics.
Here are eight takeaways from the 2024 election:
1. Trump’s Road to Victory: Trump’s road to victory in 2024 appears to have been nearly identical to his 2016 win. Both campaigns had long been focused on seven swing states: the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. There were no surprises — no states that unexpectedly slipped into Trump’s column, despite his musings about winning blue states like New Mexico and Virginia.
2. The ‘Glass Ceiling’ Remains Intact: Harris’ loss will once again leave disappointed the millions of women who hoped to see the history-making moment when what Hillary Clinton famously called the “glass ceiling” was shattered. There was a significant gender split, with the majority of women backing Harris, but men supporting Trump, CNN’s exit polls showed.
3. Senate Majority: Republicans won back the Senate majority that they held during Trump’s first term but lost when he was defeated in 2020. The GOP win would have significant ramifications for a new president — easing Trump’s path to having nominees for the Cabinet and other key posts confirmed.
4. Democrats Last Line of Defense: With Harris’ loss of the presidency and with the Senate coming under GOP control, the House could become the party’s last line of defense in Washington. With so many votes still to be counted and races to be called, it’s hard to say whether House Democrats are on a path to victory or are headed for another close defeat.
5. Key Legislation in Jeopardy: If Republicans keep their majority, key legislation such as the CHIPS Act, public investments doled out by the Bipartisan Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction acts, and Obamacare could be on the chopping block.
6. Rural Counties Support: If Trump does return to the White House, he will have rural counties across the battleground states to thank. Trump’s margins in rural America appear to have been simply too large to overtake. It turns out that there were, in fact, more votes for the former president to mine in counties like central Pennsylvania’s Huntingdon.
7. Math on Trump’s Side: Small numbers in the grander scheme of an election so big, expensive, and plainly complicated could seem negligible — but they add up. And on Tuesday, the math appeared to be on Trump’s side.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election marks a significant political comeback and raises questions about the direction of the Democratic Party and the impact of key legislation moving forward. Trump’s ability to win back key swing states and maintain support across various demographic groups underscores his continued appeal to a significant portion of the American electorate. As the final results continue to come in, the implications of this election will undoubtedly shape the political landscape for years to come.
