Tariffs on Canadian steel less likely under Trump 2.0, U.S. trade experts say, but disruption still a risk

Canada’s concerns about trade with the U.S. under a potential second Trump administration are valid, but there may be some relief in sight when it comes to specific tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, according to D.C.-based trade policy lawyer, Leah Scarpelli. While President-elect Trump has previously referred to himself as the “tariff man” and proposed a minimum tariff on all imports entering the United States, the focus this time around may not be as targeted towards Canada.

Speaking at a steel construction industry conference in Calgary, Scarpelli mentioned that she does not anticipate any tariffs aimed specifically at Canada this time. Instead, there is a risk that Canada may get caught up in broader tariffs imposed on imports from various countries. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel products and a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian aluminum products, leading to retaliatory measures from Canada. However, an exemption was eventually granted.

Keanin Loomis, president of the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction, expressed concerns about potential disruptions in trade under a second Trump administration. He highlighted the importance of the flow of U.S. steel into Canada for building construction, and the impact that tariffs could have on the industry.

Scarpelli emphasized that Trump’s focus seems to be more on Chinese overcapacity and the risk of cheap steel being dumped into the U.S. market, potentially using Mexico as a backdoor. Canada recently imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, aligning with the U.S. to prevent the dumping of cheap foreign steel into the Canadian market.

François Desmarais of the Canadian Steel Producers Association expressed cautious optimism about trade relations between Canada and the U.S. He noted that Canada has made improvements in trade policy and is more integrated with the U.S., sharing common concerns about the steel industry, particularly regarding Chinese overcapacity.

Former U.S. congressman Phil English highlighted the importance of harmonized policies around foreign steel for Canada and the U.S. He suggested that Canada has a window of opportunity to advocate for free trade between the two countries, especially with the upcoming review of CUSMA in 2026. English believes that Canada could play a crucial role in bridging the divide between the U.S. and Mexico and ensuring a fair trade agreement.

In conclusion, while concerns about trade disruptions under a second Trump administration persist, there may be opportunities for Canada to navigate these challenges and advocate for free trade policies that benefit both countries. The steel industry and policymakers will need to closely monitor developments and engage in strategic discussions to safeguard the interests of all stakeholders.