‘The pendulum is swinging’: Experts weigh in on historic SCOTUS transgender case amid oral arguments

The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) began hearing oral arguments for the high-profile case involving Tennessee’s ban on transgender medical procedures for minors on Wednesday, and one expert is saying the historic case shows “the pendulum is swinging.”

The case, U.S. v. Skrmetti, will decide whether Tennessee’s ban on transgender medical procedures is constitutional and could impact whether states will enact more bans and allow individuals to sue medical providers.

“I think you’re finding more of these people willing and certainly wanting to sue the pharmaceutical companies, as well as the doctors who prescribe medication or did the surgery,” Mat Staver, chairman of nonprofit legal group Liberty Counsel, told Fox News Digital in an interview.

“So I think that the pendulum is swinging,” said Staver, whose legal group filed an amicus brief in support of Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti. “So even no matter what the Supreme Court does, I think the lawsuits will ultimately be the death mill of this kind of intervention.”

As oral arguments commenced Wednesday morning, supporters and opponents of gender transition treatments gathered outside the SCOTUS building holding transgender Pride flags and “Kids’ Health Matters.” Over the course of more than two hours, the justices listened to each side present their arguments and asked questions.

The court’s ruling could affect other current legal fights over transgender rights, including bathroom access and participation in scholastic sports. It could also serve as a legal template for future disputes involving the LGBTQ community and whether sexual orientation is a “protected class” that deserves the same rights that involve a person’s race and national origin.

Staver said appellate courts have consistently upheld state bans on gender-affirming care for minors, though some lower court rulings have been overturned on appeal. He predicts the Supreme Court will likely follow this trend, framing the issue as one of regulating medical procedures rather than a question of constitutional protection.

“I think it’s really a question of whether or not this rises to a level of constitutional protection, which I don’t think it does,” Staver said.

The Biden administration joined the lawsuit by filing a petition to the Supreme Court in November 2023. The Department of Justice argued that the Tennessee law, which limits access to puberty blockers and hormone therapies for transgender minors, violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. This clause requires equal treatment of individuals in similar circumstances under the law.

“It is no surprise to my mind that this is something I believe the Biden administration would love to hang its hat on as a victory for so-called transgender rights,” Heritage Foundation senior legal fellow Sarah Perry told Fox News Digital.

The administration’s petition emphasized the “urgent need” for Supreme Court review, citing the impact on families who risk losing essential medical care. The DOJ also highlighted the broader implications of similar laws in other states, arguing that the bans disproportionately target transgender youth while permitting similar treatment for non-transgender minors.

“But I will say this is going to present a very interesting potential, about FACE [The Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act] with the incoming Trump administration, they have made very clear during the campaign that they want to restrict these procedures for minors,” Perry said.

“So the Department of Justice under President Trump has an opportunity to reverse course, to file a motion to dismiss, voluntarily dismiss the case, and then it presents an interesting question: what do the justices do?” she added.

The case comes as transgender issues have become a hotly debated topic in the country’s culture wars. Several large medical groups, including the American Medical Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Psychological Association and American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, all endorse transgender medical procedures for children.

Meanwhile, more than 26 states have either restricted or passed laws banning them.

Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti told reporters after the arguments, “The Constitution allows the states to protect kids from unproven, life-altering procedures based on uncertain science.”

A ruling is expected by July 2025.