Top political handicapper reveals what Dems’ chances are at winning back the Senate in 2026
Democrats find themselves facing a challenging path to winning back the Senate majority in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a top non-partisan political handicapper. The Cook Report’s first Senate rankings for the 2026 election cycle indicate that the Democrats have limited opportunities to flip enough seats to regain control of the chamber.
With Republicans defending seats in 22 states compared to just 13 for the Democrats, the odds are stacked against the blue party. In the previous election cycle, Senate Republicans were able to flip four seats from Democrat to Republican, securing a 53-47 majority in the new Congress.
Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the Cook Report, described the task for Democrats as “Herculean,” noting that they would need to net four seats to win back the majority. Currently, two Democratic-held seats are classified as toss-ups – Michigan and Georgia.
In Michigan, Senator Gary Peters recently announced that he would not seek re-election, leaving the seat vulnerable. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff faces a tough battle against potential Republican challengers. Both states were flipped by former President Donald Trump in the previous election.
The Cook Report also lists New Hampshire as Lean Democrat, with Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s re-election bid uncertain. Former Republican Senator Scott Brown is considering a run in the state, posing a potential challenge to the Democrats.
On the Republican side, two seats are rated as Lean Republican – Maine and North Carolina. Senators Susan Collins and Thom Tillis are seeking re-election in states that Trump narrowly carried. The Cook Report suggests that these races could become more competitive if Democrats recruit strong candidates.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, Senate Republicans are aiming to expand their majority. Senator Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has expressed a goal of reaching 55 or even 56 seats in the Senate. The GOP believes they can capitalize on the Democrats’ unpopular party brand and potentially secure additional victories in key battleground states.
Despite historical trends favoring the party out of power in midterm elections, Democrats are facing an uphill battle in their quest to retake the Senate majority. With limited opportunities to flip seats and a challenging electoral landscape, the road ahead looks tough for the blue party.
