Trump isn’t yet U.S. president, but his plans for the war in Ukraine loom large over G20
The G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, set to begin on Monday, is already facing the impact of shifting geopolitical events, despite Brazil’s official theme of addressing hunger, poverty, and inequality.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, fresh from the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, acknowledged that many discussions at the APEC summit revolved around preparations for the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump and what can be achieved before his term begins.
The G20 summit is expected to be no different, especially with reports suggesting that U.S. President Joe Biden has decided to lift restrictions on Ukraine, enabling the country to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. This policy shift by the U.S. has prompted Ukraine to plan its first long-range attacks sooner rather than later.
Retired Canadian lieutenant-general Guy Thibault, chair of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and former vice-chief of the defence staff, emphasized the interconnectedness of defense security issues with the broader geopolitical agenda. He highlighted the international insecurity caused by conflicts in regions like the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific, indicating that these issues are likely to be discussed at the summit.
The uncertainty surrounding Biden’s decision on Ukraine and the impending inauguration of Trump on January 20 raises questions about the sustainability of agreements made at the G20 summit. The diverse composition of the G20, comprising friends, rivals, and adversaries, further complicates the task of reaching consensus on critical issues.
Canada’s strained relationship with China, coupled with the anticipated escalation of tensions under a Trump administration, poses significant challenges for the country. Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, highlighted the potential revival of trade wars with China and increased volatility in international relations.
Trudeau’s scheduled meetings with world leaders, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and discussions on the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) underscore the importance of addressing trade issues at the summit. Additionally, Trudeau’s meeting with Biden holds significance as they navigate the transition of power and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
In conclusion, the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro stands at a critical juncture, navigating complex geopolitical dynamics and uncertainties. The discussions and decisions made at the summit will have far-reaching implications for global governance and international relations.
