War games in Latvia: Once unimaginable scenarios become chilling rehearsals
A few years ago, the scenario that Canadian and other NATO troops rehearsed in Latvia might have seemed far-fetched. Last week, roughly 3,400 troops from 14 nations, led by a Canadian commander, conducted a training exercise to simulate a last-ditch defense of the Latvian capital.
The exercise took place on a mud-soaked, winter-scorched training range outside of Riga, with the scenario unfolding 30 days into a hypothetical invasion of the Baltic state by a belligerent neighbor with a fake name. While everyone knew the enemy was Russia, the name was left unspoken.
The timing of the exercise coincided with escalating tensions between the United States and Ukraine following a heated exchange involving President Donald Trump, Vice-President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This has raised concerns in Latvia about the possibility of Washington moving closer to Moscow.
Latvia has witnessed Russian bases in the Baltic region being refilled and restocked, prompting the country to increase fortifications along its borders with Russia. Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds expressed a desire for a larger NATO presence in the country, emphasizing the importance of protecting not just Latvia but the entire region and NATO allies.
The multinational division responsible for Latvia’s defense, led by Danish Maj.-Gen. Jette Albinus, is prepared for potential threats from Russia. Albinus highlighted the need for readiness in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, which could lead to heightened tensions in the Baltic region.
One of the key challenges for NATO military planners is ensuring the reinforcement and resupply of troops in a crisis. Plans involve Canada, Denmark, and Sweden deploying additional troops to Latvia, with considerations for potential obstacles such as Russian submarines in the Baltic Sea.
Col. Henrik Rosdahl, commander of the Swedish mechanized battalion within the Canadian-led brigade, emphasized the importance of troops being able to hold their ground and fight back in the event of an invasion. While challenges remain in terms of rebuilding national defense forces, preparations are underway to strengthen Latvia’s defense capabilities.
The presence of German and British-led brigades in Lithuania and Estonia respectively, in addition to the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia, demonstrates NATO’s collective defense on the eastern flank. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) has examined potential scenarios of conflict in the Baltics, emphasizing the need for readiness and cooperation among NATO allies.
Overall, the training exercise in Latvia serves as a reminder of the importance of preparedness and cooperation among NATO allies in the face of evolving security threats. As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, it is essential for nations to work together to ensure the defense and security of the Baltic region.
