What are Justin Trudeau’s options in wake of Chrystia Freeland’s resignation?

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet on Monday has sparked a wave of discontent among Liberal MPs, many of whom are now calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down. The frustration was palpable during a hastily arranged caucus meeting on Monday night, where 15 MPs voiced their concerns about Trudeau’s handling of his relationship with Freeland.

The pressure on Trudeau to resign has only increased in the days following Freeland’s departure. Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson acknowledged that Trudeau is taking time to reflect on the situation and listen to the feedback from his caucus. With the House of Commons on holiday break until the end of January, Trudeau has some breathing room to consider his next steps.

There are several possible scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. One option is for Trudeau to voluntarily step down, triggering a leadership race within the Liberal Party. This would require the party to select a new leader and prime minister, a process that could leave the government vulnerable to a non-confidence vote before a new leader is chosen. In such a scenario, Trudeau might opt to prorogue Parliament until a new prime minister is ready to govern.

On the other hand, Trudeau could choose to remain in office and weather the storm of discontent within his caucus. He may seek to placate disgruntled MPs by offering cabinet positions in an impending reshuffle. The timing of any potential election is also a factor to consider, with a campaign needing to be at least 37 days long and the House scheduled to reconvene on January 27.

The opposition parties, particularly the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois, have been vocal in calling for an election following Freeland’s resignation. However, they lack the votes to bring down the government on their own. The NDP, while also critical of Trudeau, appears to be more willing to give him time to consider his future. NDP House leader Peter Julian indicated that if Trudeau has not stepped down by February or March, the party will vote against the Liberals on a non-confidence motion.

The political landscape in Canada is in flux as Trudeau grapples with the fallout from Freeland’s resignation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the future leadership of the Liberal Party and the government as a whole.