Who are Canada’s top Olympic gold-medal contenders?

Though the opening ceremony isn’t until Friday, competition at the Paris Olympics begins tomorrow with some men’s soccer and rugby sevens matches that you can stream live on CBC Sports’ Olympic website and mobile app.

Since Canada didn’t qualify for either event, I thought it might be good to spend today on some of the top Canadians to watch once the Games really get going.

According to the latest forecast from the data company Nielsen’s Gracenote, Canadian athletes are expected to win seven gold medals in Paris. That’s the same amount Canada won in 2021 in Tokyo, which matched the national record for a non-boycotted Summer Games. Gracenote’s statistical model predicts Canada will win 21 medals overall in Paris, which would be three fewer than in Tokyo.

Here’s a look at the six Canadians projected to capture a gold, with some analysis on where the Gracenote model might be too high or too low on them.

For help with that, I checked the betting odds for various events. The intention here is not to promote sports gambling (God knows we don’t need more of that). Rather, I think betting markets are a useful forecasting tool because they express the collective knowledge of people who back their opinions with actual money.

Summer McIntosh (swimming)

These Summer Olympics might quickly become, well, the Summer Olympics as the 17-year-old phenom is favoured to win two gold medals and could reach several more podiums over the first nine full days of competition.

McIntosh’s first Olympic medal could come as soon as Saturday in the women’s 400m freestyle, where she’ll battle Australia’s Ariarne Titmus and American Katie Ledecky in what could be the most exciting swimming showdown of the Games. Gracenote’s model has McIntosh missing the podium in this insanely competitive event after she finished fourth (behind New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather) at the 2023 world championships. But the betting markets disagree. They see Mcintosh battling Ledecky for the silver behind Titmus, the world-record holder and clear favourite to repeat as Olympic champ.

Gracenote’s model has McIntosh winning gold in the 400m individual medley on July 29 and the 200m butterfly on Aug 1 after she claimed back-to-back world titles in both events. The betting markets agree, as the Canadian is a massive favourite in the 400 IM and a smaller-but-still-clear favourite in the 200 fly.

The model and the bettors diverge on McIntosh’s chances in her final individual event, the 200m medley on Aug. 3. Gracenote has her missing the podium, while the people with money on it see a three-way battle between McIntosh, Australia’s Kaylee McKeown and American Kate Douglass, with no clear favourite.

McIntosh could also swim in up to four relay events. Gracenote’s model has Canada taking bronze in the women’s 4x100m freestyle and 4x100m medley, presumably with McIntosh on both teams. Add those to her four solo podium opportunities, and there’s a good chance McIntosh surpasses 16-year-old Penny Oleksiak’s four medals in 2016 — the Canadian record for a single Summer Games.

Speaking of Penny, she didn’t qualify for any individual events but will still have a chance to add to her Canadian-record seven Olympic medals in the relays. Read more about her rough road to Paris here.

Damian Warner (decathlon)

The Olympics’ ultimate test of all-around athleticism was shaping up as a battle between two Canadians: Warner, the reigning Olympic champion, vs. Pierce LePage, the reigning world champ. But LePage pulled out last week due to a back injury, making Warner the favourite to repeat coming off his silver at last year’s world championships.

The injury bug also bit world-record holder Kevin Mayer of France. The 2022 world champ and back-to-back silver medallist suffered a hamstring injury earlier this month when he crashed out of a hurdles race. But he still has more than a week to recover as the decathlon takes place Aug. 2 and 3.

Ethan Katzberg and Camryn Rogers (hammer throw)

It’s been 112 years since Canada’s last Olympic medal in this sport. But Gracenote’s model projects a Canadian sweep of the men’s and women’s golds in Paris after Katzberg and Rogers both won their first world titles last year.

Katzberg, 22, came out of nowhere to win gold in Budapest last August, defeating reigning Olympic champion Wojciech Nowicki (silver) and five-time world champ Pawel Fajdek (fourth), both of Poland. But it proved to be no fluke. Katzberg has the four best throws in the world this year, and he’s a huge betting favourite to win Olympic gold.

Rogers, 25, owns the second- and third-best women’s throws of the year. But she caught a break when the world leader, Brooke Andersen, fouled out at the U.S. Olympic trials, costing her a spot in Paris. Andersen won gold at the 2022 world championships, where Rogers was the silver medallist. With her top rival out, Rogers is the clear betting favourite over American Deanna Price, the bronze medallist at last year’s worlds and the title winner in 2019.

The men’s hammer throw event begins Aug. 2, with the final on Aug. 4. The women’s takes place Aug. 4 and 6.

Phil Kim (breaking)

If you don’t know, breaking is a competitive form of breakdancing, the New York City-born art form that’s also popular on the streets of Paris. The sport is making its Olympic debut here before disappearing from the Games. Los Angeles 2028 organizers decided not to make it one of their optional sports, choosing cricket, lacrosse, squash, baseball/softball and flag football instead.

Kim, who goes by the moniker Phil Wizard, is Gracenote’s pick to be the first (and perhaps last) gold medallist in the Olympic B-Boys event on Aug. 10. He won the men’s world title in 2022 and took silver in 2023, when he also took gold at the Pan Am Games. The betting odds (yes, you can even bet on breaking, apparently) have American Victor Montalvo as a slight favourite over Kim, but it’s pretty much a toss-up.

Christa Deguchi (judo)

The Japanese-born martial artist is ranked No. 1 in the world in the women’s 57kg weight class after winning her second world title last year and adding a silver at this year’s worlds. Deguchi will make her Olympic debut in Paris after Canadian rival Jessica Klimkait beat her out for a spot in the 2021 Games in Tokyo and went on to win a bronze. Klimkait, currently ranked No. 2 in the world, missed out this time.

Judo could be one of Canada’s best sources of medals in Paris. Along with Deguchi’s gold, Gracenote predicts a silver for Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard in the women’s 63kg weight class and a bronze for Shady Elnahas in the men’s 100kg. The only other sports where Canada is projected to win at least three medals are swimming and track and field (six each).

Fun fact about Deguchi: she and her younger sister Kelly, who’s also a judoka, are one of five sets of Canadian siblings competing in Tokyo. Thankfully, they won’t have to fight each other as Kelly competes in the 52kg class.

Judo competition begins Saturday, with Deguchi’s division hitting the mats July 29.

Some notable snubs:

Putting aside the question of whether an algorithm can really “snub” someone, it’s interesting that the Gracenote model predicts no individual medals for Andre De Grasse. Though he’s projected for a silver in the men’s 4x100m relay, this would end his incredible run of six medals in six career Olympic events, highlighted by his 200m gold in Tokyo. The betting markets aren’t high on Canada’s biggest track star either: he’s outside the top 10 in the 100m odds and fifth in the 200m.

Sticking with track and field, 800m world champion Marco Arop was Gracenote’s pick for Olympic gold all year. But he’s now projected for silver in what could be one of the most exciting races in Paris. Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati is the new betting favourite after back-to-back Diamond League victories that saw him run the year’s best time and then beat it the following week.

Gracenote’s forecast that the Canadian women’s soccer team will miss the podium is also backed by the betting markets. The reigning Olympic champs have just the eighth-best title odds in their 12-team tournament. Canada surprised everyone with their thrilling gold in Tokyo, but they failed to advance out of the group stage at last summer’s World Cup and are just the sixth-highest-ranked team in the Olympic tournament after the retirement of all-time scoring leader Christine Sinclair. At least they’ll have a chance to build some momentum in their opening match on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET vs. New Zealand, which is probably the worst team in the entire women’s soccer event.

A Gracenote projection that I’m more skeptical of is the lack of a medal for the Canadian men’s basketball team. Fine, they haven’t won one since 1936, and this is their first Olympic appearance since 2000. But Canada took bronze at last summer’s World Cup, and they have a bona fide superstar in NBA MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus a great sidekick in Jamal Murray and a roster of almost all NBA players. The betting markets agree with me: after the heavily favoured United States, Canada has the next-best odds of winning gold, ahead of Victor Wembanyama’s host France and Nikola Jokic’s Serbia. Canada opens Saturday at 3 p.m. ET vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Greece and will also face Australia and Spain in the group stage.

Here’s the full list of Gracenote’s projected Canadian medallists:

Gold

Swimming: Summer McIntosh (women’s 200m butterfly)

Swimming: Summer McIntosh (women’s 400m IM)

Track and field: Damian Warner (decathlon)

Track and field: Camryn Rogers (women’s hammer throw)

Track and field: Ethan Katzberg (men’s hammer throw)

Breaking: Philip Kim (B-Boys)

Judo: Christa Deguchi (women’s 57kg)

Silver

Swimming: Josh Liendo (men’s 100m butterfly)

Track and field: Men’s 4x100m relay team

Track and field: Marco Arop (men’s 800m)

Track and field: Sarah Mitton (women’s shot put)

Boxing: Tammara Thibeault (women’s 75kg)

Canoe sprint: Katie Vincent (women’s single)

Canoe sprint: Katie Vincent and Sloan MacKenzie (women’s double)

Judo: Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard (women’s 53kg)

Artistic swimming: team event

Bronze

Swimming: Kylie Masse (women’s 100m backstroke)

Swimming: Women’s 4x100m freestyle relay team

Swimming: Women’s 4x100m medley relay team

Rowing: Women’s eight

Judo: Shady Elnahas (men’s 100 kg)