Experts warn of North Korea-style repression in Iran after Israel conflict

Iran’s Regime Turns Inward: Repression and Isolation Escalate

After the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the Iranian regime appears to be taking a dark turn towards increased repression and isolation. Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, warns that Iran is moving towards a “North Korea-style model of isolation and control.”

According to Aarabi, the level of suppression and repression in Iran is reaching unprecedented levels. Citizens are being stopped at random, their phones confiscated and searched for any content deemed pro-Israel or critical of the regime. People are now living in fear, leaving their phones at home or deleting everything before stepping outside.

This wave of paranoia and fear is reminiscent of tactics used in North Korea, where citizens vanish without explanation and information is tightly controlled. During the recent conflict, Iran imposed a total internet blackout in an attempt to isolate the population and manipulate public perception. Israeli evacuation alerts were blocked, and propaganda was spread framing Israel as targeting civilians indiscriminately.

The regime’s goal was to keep people off the streets and erode the bond that had formed between Iranians and Israelis during the conflict. However, the internet blackout backfired, causing some Iranians to question what was truly happening.

Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a leading Iran scholar, believes that domestic repression is the regime’s most reliable strategy for survival. As the regime faces internal crisis and pressure to purge the IRGC of potential collaborators, the next generation of IRGC officers are younger, more radical, and deeply indoctrinated. Aarabi warns that a purge is likely, leading to a rise of younger, less experienced commanders with higher risk tolerance, potentially making the IRGC more volatile both domestically and internationally.

Despite the regime’s brutal turn inward, Aarabi believes it is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The regime is acting out of fear, and until the suppressive apparatus is dismantled, regime change remains unlikely. The future of Iran remains uncertain, with the regime tightening its grip on power at the expense of its own people.