Zelenskyy faces perilous re-election odds as US, Russia push Ukraine to go to the polls as part of peace deal
One year has passed since the expiration of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first five-year term, and both the U.S. and Russia are now in agreement that Ukrainians must go to the polls to decide the fate of their head of state. Russia has made it clear that they will not sign a peace agreement until Ukraine agrees to hold elections, while the U.S. has proposed a three-stage plan involving a ceasefire, Ukrainian elections, and then the signing of a peace deal.
Originally, Zelenskyy’s term was set to end last May, with elections scheduled for April 2024. However, due to martial law restrictions in the Ukrainian constitution, elections cannot be held until six months after the end of martial law. This has created a complex situation for Zelenskyy, whose popularity has dropped significantly since the outbreak of the war.
With his approval ratings plummeting nearly 40%, Zelenskyy’s future in office is uncertain if peace is reached and elections are triggered. The U.S. has expressed the desire for Kyiv to hold elections as soon as a peace deal is reached, possibly by the end of the year. However, Zelenskyy has pushed back against these calls, stating that Ukrainians are alarmed by the idea of premature elections.
Former President Petro Poroshenko has also weighed in on the issue, claiming that elections will be held before the end of the year. However, conflicting statements from other political figures have added to the confusion surrounding the timing of the elections.
The prospect of holding elections before a durable peace deal has raised concerns among experts, with some warning that Russia could use the opportunity to sow chaos and influence the outcome in their favor. Zelenskyy’s main opponent is expected to be Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general and the current ambassador to the United Kingdom, who was fired by Zelenskyy last year.
Despite the challenges facing Zelenskyy, it is unlikely that a pro-Russia candidate would prevail in the upcoming elections, as all frontrunners are expected to be pro-Western and pro-European. Zelenskyy’s crackdown on pro-Russia political parties has further diminished the chances of a pro-Russia government taking power in Ukraine.
As negotiations for a peace deal continue, the fate of Ukraine’s leadership hangs in the balance. Whether Zelenskyy will be able to weather the storm and secure re-election remains to be seen, but one thing is clear – the future of Ukraine will be decided at the ballot box.
