Trump’s tax hike proposal gives political experts ‘déjà vu’ of George H. W. Bush raising taxes

President George H. W. Bush faced intense backlash from Americans after famously vowing not to raise taxes during the 1988 Republican National Convention, only to support a tax hike as president two years later. Now, history seems to be repeating itself as President Donald Trump has signaled his support for congressional Republicans raising taxes to achieve the ambitious goals of his “big, beautiful bill,” according to experts.

At the 1988 convention, then-Vice President Bush declared, “Read my lips: no new taxes,” before ultimately raising taxes with the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990. This move led to significant political fallout for the Republican party, contributing to Bush’s loss in the 1992 election to President Bill Clinton.

Trump’s recent indication of willingness to raise taxes on Americans, specifically targeting individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, has drawn comparisons to Bush’s controversial decision. The president’s social media post on Truth Social on Friday suggested his openness to a small tax increase, highlighting the potential political risks involved.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been vocal in urging Trump to reconsider his stance on taxes, warning that a tax hike could fracture the conservative coalition and have detrimental effects on small businesses across the country. With ongoing negotiations surrounding Trump’s proposed bill, Republican leaders like House Speaker Mike Johnson are facing pressure to maintain the party’s commitment to tax cuts.

Political experts and pundits alike have expressed concerns about the potential consequences of Trump’s shift on taxes, drawing parallels to Bush’s ill-fated decision. The specter of the 1992 election looms large, with the possibility that Democrats could gain an advantage in the 2026 midterms if tax hikes prove unpopular among Republican voters.

Despite the comparisons to Bush’s failed reelection bid, some fiscal conservatives remain optimistic that Trump will ultimately uphold his campaign promise of not raising taxes. Club for Growth President David McIntosh expressed confidence in Trump’s commitment to tax cuts, emphasizing the importance of extending the historic tax cuts from 2017.

As negotiations continue on Capitol Hill, the White House has reaffirmed its focus on tax priorities that benefit lower and middle-income Americans. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized the president’s desire for significant tax cuts and willingness to consider a slight increase to assist those in need.

In conclusion, the parallels between President George H. W. Bush’s tax hike in 1990 and President Donald Trump’s potential shift on taxes serve as a cautionary tale for the Republican party. The decision to raise taxes can have far-reaching political implications, and it remains to be seen how Trump’s stance will impact his administration and the GOP as a whole.