5 million and counting? StatsCan model suggests Alberta has hit population milestone

Late Sunday night, the anticipation was high as ATB’s chief economist, Mark Parsons, waited for a Statistics Canada computer model to predict that Alberta had reached its fifth millionth resident. At 11:18 p.m., the population clock estimated that an immigrant had arrived in the province, pushing the population to this significant milestone.

Parsons described it as a provincial achievement that reflects the everyday reality of life in Alberta. The influx of people from other provinces, the bustling streets, and the filling up of schools all point to the continuous growth and development in the region.

In the years 2023 and 2024, Alberta experienced exceptional population growth. The number of residents increased by 3.9% in 2023 and another 4.4% in 2024, according to provincial budget reports. However, Finance Minister Nate Horner mentioned that the growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.6% in the current year, with the projection of reaching five million Albertans by July.

Despite these projections, Stacey Hallman from Statistics Canada cautioned that the population clock’s estimates are based on past trends and may not reflect the final numbers. The official population estimates for the second quarter of 2025 will be released in September, providing a more accurate picture of Alberta’s population reaching five million.

A report released by StatsCan earlier this year suggested that Alberta might reach five million residents by 2026 or 2027. Changes in federal immigration policies and other factors are expected to impact the rate of newcomers to the country and the province.

Unlike previous population surges linked to oil booms, the current growth in Alberta is driven by factors like job opportunities and affordable housing. Young adults and families are moving to Alberta for better prospects, with inter-provincial migration remaining steady despite federal policy changes.

The province’s diverse economy, including sectors like petrochemicals, biodiesel, and tourism, offers employment opportunities for newcomers. Alberta’s birth rate surpasses its death rate, with most new residents settling in major cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer, and Lethbridge.

Alberta’s attractiveness as a destination for economic migrants is further highlighted by potential tariff threats in other provinces. The growth in private sector jobs and investments in infrastructure have been key factors in drawing people to the region.

However, challenges like overcrowded classrooms and strains on healthcare services indicate the need for better planning and investment in infrastructure. While the push for a provincial referendum on separation from Canada could potentially deter newcomers, there is consensus on the importance of welcoming new ideas and individuals to support the province’s progress and success.