The Conservatives may be headed for their best fundraising year ever

The federal Conservatives are crushing the governing Liberals in fundraising, helping the opposition party build up what could be a record-setting war chest to push their message before and during the next federal election campaign.

Records filed with Elections Canada show that the Official Opposition has brought in $23.3 million so far this year, roughly $13.5 million more than the governing Liberals.

Over the past four quarters — going back to the last quarter of 2022 and Pierre Poilievre’s election as leader of the party — the Conservatives have out-fundraised the Liberals by an average of about $4.3 million per quarter.

If that trend continues in the last quarter of 2023, the Conservatives will have their best year relative to the Liberals since the modern Conservative Party was formed two decades ago.

This year already saw the second-highest fundraising gap between the Conservatives and Liberals (without factoring in expenses) of the past two decades. The current record year is 2008, when the Conservatives out-fundraised the Stéphane Dion-led Liberals by more than $15 million.

Depending on how much the Conservatives raise in the fourth quarter, they have a shot at breaking the all-time record for Canadian political party fundraising, which the party set in 2019 at $30.9 million. The Conservative fundraising numbers don’t include money that has flowed to the party from transfers or membership signups during the 2022 leadership campaign.

Conservatives traditionally hold a fundraising edge over the Liberals but the past year has elevated that advantage to new heights.

“They’re firing on all cylinders,” said Fred DeLorey, a longtime Conservative strategist who ran the party’s 2021 campaign under then-leader Erin O’Toole.

“It gives the Conservative Party such a massive edge in their ability to communicate. That’s why the Conservatives were able to spend well over $3 million running ads over the last number of months on Pierre, and we’ve seen that’s [had] a huge impact on the polls.”

Defining the leader

The party launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign over the summer that framed Poilievre as a family man who wants to fix the country.

DeLorey said deep pockets give a party a big advantage between elections, when spending restrictions active during the campaign period do not apply.

“[A campaign is] 36 days out of a generally four-year cycle, right? The rest of the time, though, the Conservatives are able to run laps around the other parties in terms of their advertising that they could do [and] the hiring of staff, ground organizers around the country,” DeLorey said.

In a statement, a spokesperson for the Liberal Party said the LPC still received strong support from voters and from donors, and noted that the Conservatives spend more on fundraising activities.

“In their communications, advertising and fundraising, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party continue to sow fear and division by importing far-right American-style politics here to Canada and pushing for cuts to the services that Canadians rely on,” said Parker Lund.

“Filings with Elections Canada continue to highlight that Liberal supporters are getting far more value for their donations than Conservatives.”

More money spent, more money raised

The Conservatives do spend significantly more on fundraising activities than the Liberals — usually more than double, according to annual filings with Elections Canada. But even accounting for the difference in expenses, the Conservatives tend to retain a significant net fundraising advantage.

In 2022, for example, the Conservatives out-fundraised the Liberals by more than $4 million, after expenses.

Erin Crandall, an associate professor of political science at Acadia University, said it’s important to remember that more money doesn’t necessarily translate into more votes. But she said money is still crucial to running an effective campaign and can still be a rough indicator of support.

“It does, I think, help to gauge the enthusiasm of already committed voters to the different political parties,” she said.

“It’s never a surprising story to hear the Conservatives are out-fundraising the Liberals or the NDP,” Crandall added. “But when they do reach historical levels of fundraising, then that would suggest that they have some momentum building as we get closer to a likely federal election.”

Crandall said that at the national level, there is a trend toward parties trying to bring in many small donations from a large base of supporters, rather than relying on a few big-ticket donations — which might have been the practice before strict contributions limits were implemented.

DeLorey said success in fundraising and public support (the Conservatives also hold a strong lead over the Liberals in polling) go hand-in-hand and the numbers suggest the Conservatives will continue to push their messages in the short and medium-term ahead of a possible campaign.

“They absolutely have to keep spending. They have to keep running ads and they have to keep introducing Poilievre. They can’t allow the Liberals or the media to define him. They have to define him themselves and they have to remain very aggressive,” DeLorey said.

“This is all about winning the next election.”