Could some policy wins lift the NDP’s political fortunes?

The NDP is hoping to translate policy success into political success when some key elements of their supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals roll out in 2024 — but one polling analyst says the party’s numbers don’t seem to be budging.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told CBC News Network’s Power & Politics that his main goal is to push for policies that help Canadians. But he conceded that he hopes the NDP can get some credit for some of the government’s recent policy moves. 

“Once seniors are able to get their teeth looked after, once more and more kids are able to go to the dentist, once families see the benefit this has in their lives, we’ll put [it] to Canadians that, ‘Listen, we fought hard for you,'” Singh told host David Cochrane.

The government recently unveiled details of its highly anticipated Canadian Dental Care Plan (CDCP), which will start covering most basic dentistry costs for nine million uninsured Canadians next year.

The government also passed legislation that would strengthen the Competition Act to boost competition in the grocery sector, something the NDP has advocated. The government also has been making a lot of major funding announcements lately under the Housing Accelerator Fund, which is part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

NDP House Leader Peter Julian said he’s already getting positive feedback from his constituents.

“I’ve been coming back and talking to my constituents and they are giving an overwhelming thumbs-up to the NDP,” he told CBC News.

“The NDP has a great track record and the receipts to say [that] not only have we been fighting on your behalf, but we’ve been fighting successfully.”

Singh said the agreement with the Liberals has refocused his energy on winning the top job.

“Having seen the government up close, it’s really redoubled my desire to become prime minister. We could do so much more to make people’s lives better,” he said.

But Éric Grenier, a polls analyst with TheWrit.ca, said Singh might have a long wait ahead of him — because the NDP’s numbers have been pretty flat lately.

“I don’t see any sign that the NDP is making any progress as a result of [the supply-and-confidence agreement],” he said. “They’ve been stuck somewhere just south of 20 per cent for the last little while and the trend line has been pretty steady.”

Grenier also pointed out that the NDP’s numbers haven’t dropped lately, which may be a positive thing for the party.

“Traditionally, the junior partner in any sort of agreement or coalition or anything like that tends to kind of diminish over time in the polls. But the NDP has been able to hold its vote,” he said.

While the Conservatives have held a fairly steady lead over the Liberals and NDP in recent polls, at least one policy from the supply-and-confidence agreement appears to have strong support among voters.

In a recent Abacus poll, a majority of Canadians said a Conservative government shouldn’t cut the dental care program.

Grenier said one roadblock facing the NDP is the fact that the Liberals can always take credit for programs like dental care.

When asked if it’s been difficult to work with the government while also acting as an opposition party, Julian noted that the NDP stood with other opposition parties against the Liberals over the past year. He pointed to controversial amendments to the Liberals’ gun legislation and calls for a public inquiry into foreign interference as examples.

“What we do is we use every tool available to us. If that means having conversations and negotiations, that’s something that we do. If it means pushing the government in the House of Commons, we certainly do that,” he said.

The supply-and-confidence agreement appeared to hit an obstacle during the recent sitting of the House of Commons when the government failed to pass pharmacare legislation by the end of 2023 — the deadline set in the original wording of the agreement.

The NDP and Liberals agreed to an extension. Pharmacare legislation is now expected to be tabled in March.

Singh blamed the Liberals for the delay but said pharmacare remains a priority for his party.

“We said no to the first draft and they took it very clearly. They took back our feedback very clearly that we needed to see something that was in line with our principle,” he said.

Before the extension was announced, Health Minister Mark Holland said the negotiations are complex and called the deadline “arbitrary.”

“This an extremely complicated space and trying to find areas of common ground certainly takes time,” Holland said of the discussions with the NDP.

Julian wouldn’t say what the NDP might do if legislation isn’t tabled in March.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it,” he said.

But a recent poll suggests that pharmacare may not top the priority list for most Canadians.

Asked to name their top two health-care priorities in the Leger poll, only 18 per cent of Canadians surveyed said the government should prioritize creating a new, universal, single-payer drug plan.

While the NDP remains third in the polls, they’re also still third in fundraising. As of November, the party had brought in $4.2 million, well behind the Conservative and Liberals.

Grenier suggested the party may want to focus its efforts on fundraising.

“I think the biggest challenge for them is less sort of policy and how they’re seen by Canadians,” he said. “It’s just to get ready for an election to have resources in place.”