Data scarce on what green energy transition will cost Nova Scotians

Greening Nova Scotia’s grid is going to be expensive.

How expensive is hard to guess at due to the vagueness of both the provincial plan and available federal data.

“Then there is the question of whether the provinces should be bearing the burden for federal regulatory action in provincial jurisdiction,” added Lana Asaff, senior economist for the Atlantic Economic Council.

Days after Nova Scotia released its plan to meet national targets to be off coal by 2030 and hit net zero electrical generation by 2050, the council released its report, Implications for Atlantic Canada’s Economy in the Pursuit of Net-Zero Emissions.

The latest data the report’s authors could analyze was from the Canada Energy Regulator.

That was already vague on the cost of Nova Scotia’s energy transition before the provincial government announced the Atlantic Loop was dead. The estimates used by the regulator assumed the connection to Quebec’s grid.

The regulator does estimate that Nova Scotia will bear about 55 per cent of the estimated $2.2-billion cost for Canada to eliminate coal generation of electricity by 2030.

However, the regulator’s estimates assume that Nova Scotia will get rid of coal by replacing it with natural gas plants. That’s never been part of Nova Scotia’s plan. Nova Scotia is going primarily with wind, which provides cheaper electricity but also requires a larger amount of backup infrastructure for when the wind’s not blowing.

Capital investment in this province’s electrical generation to meet 2030 carbon reduction targets is predicted by the regulator to total $1.648 billion, with another $3.7 billion required by 2035.

That will come from taxpayers and ratepayers – who are quite often the same person.

“ Very little is known about the total cost of the clean electricity transformation,” the report says.

“Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are expected to make significant investments over a very tight timeline, and they have small populations to absorb these costs.”

Asaff wants more data from both the feds and the province to inform Atlantic Canadians about the huge investments they’ll be required to pay for through their taxes and their electricity rates.

She also thinks those required to pay for the electricity should get a full trajectory of its estimated cost by province over the coming decades from the federal regulator.

“The utilities, particularly in Nova Scotia, are going to be ramping up investments due to net-zero regulations and also due to increasing demand in a time frame that ratepayers and taxpayers will be funding that,” Asaff said.