Despite carbon tax exemption, Liberals still sinking in Atlantic Canada

Team Trudeau’s fortress in Atlantic Canada appears to be crumbling.

And the promise last week to take the carbon tax off heating fuel only in Atlantic Canada and just until after the next scheduled election isn’t helping them in the polls.

“If that had been front-ended, been part of the (carbon tax) implementation package, that would have gone over well,” said Tom Urbaniak, a political science professor at Cape Breton University.

“But it now appears a little bit like desperate improvisation.”

Federal Polling:

CPC: 38% (+4)
LPC: 25% (-8)
NDP: 20% (+2)
GPC: 8% (+6)
BQ: 6% (-2)
PPC: 3% (-2)

Nanos Research / October 27, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone

(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)

Check out federal details on @338Canada at: https://t.co/kg1xi0UiUP pic.twitter.com/wlRLDq3SEh

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 31, 2023

According to polling by both Nanos Research and Leger, the Liberal party’s decline in Atlantic Canada has been steep.

Leger has the Tories polling at 46 per cent in the Atlantic provinces against the Liberal’s 32 per cent, a stark reversal from just over a year ago (February 2022) when the Liberals were at 44 per cent and the Conservatives at 21 per cent support.

The Liberals currently hold 24 of Atlantic Canada’s 32 seats. According to Nanos Research, the Liberals are only polling safely or leaning in six of those seats (Halifax West, St.John’s South-Mount Pearl, Acadie-Bathurst, Beausejour, Madawaska-Restigouche and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe).

The NDP is making gains to turn Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax and St. John’s East into horse races.

And the Conservatives are polling strong leads or leaning in the region’s remaining 19 seats (a potential gain of 11 seats).

The sample sizes of the polls for Atlantic Canada are relatively small, meaning there is a sizeable margin of error, and Urbaniak cautions that strong candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada – voters here tend to support a local incumbent seen as working hard for the riding rather vote with their feelings for the national leadership.

The Conservative gains through rural Atlantic Canada point to a broader North American trend of a growing urban-rural divide, said Urbaniak.

“(The federal Liberal government) goes out of its way to present itself as urbane, in a manner of speaking, sometimes in a manner of lecturing people,” said Urbaniak.

“… there’s a growing rift between cities and rural areas, not just in Canada. I’m not sure the government has fully grasped that or even put its best minds on that issue.”

Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives came to power in the 2021 election by largely sweeping rural and small-town Nova Scotia.

“Inflation, rising cost of living, jobs, the economy, housing affordability — for many voters that’s what they want to hear about from the federal government,” said Nik Nanos, head of Nanos Research.

“Meanwhile the federal government seems focused on other issues like the environment, reconciliation with First Nations people and so forth. Issues like the environment and reconciliation are important but if you can’t pay for groceries and the bills at home, well, that’s what people are focused on.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Polievre, meanwhile, has been hammering away on pocket-book issues in advertisements and the House of Commons.

“I will give Mr. Polievre some credit – (the Conservatives) realized sooner than the government realized the impact of those sharp inflationary hits we experienced through the spring and summer of 2022,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at polling firm Leger.

That Leger poll modelled:

CPC: 211 (+92)
LPC: 70 (-90)
BQ: 33 (+1)
NDP: 27 (+2)
GPC: 2 (-)

(Model by @kylejhutton )

(Seat changes with 2021 election) pic.twitter.com/dr66Y6CWn9

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) November 2, 2023

“He got on those earlier, more effectively, his message was very direct. As opposition, his advantage is that he can be more blunt, sharper in terms of messaging.”

The Liberal government has also come under criticism for its handling of the moderate livelihood fishery file from both First Nations and non-aboriginal communities who rely on the sea. While the issue simmered under both Conservative and Liberal governments since the Supreme Court of Canada’s 1999 Marshall decision, it has come to a head under the current administration. In the last election federal fisheries minister Bernadette Jordan lost her seat in South Shore-St. Margarets.

With the Conservatives polling nationwide in solid majority government territory, the knives are coming out. The carved-out carbon tax exemption for Atlantic Canadian heating fuel came after Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal MP Ken McDonald broke ranks in October by voting for a non-binding Conservative motion to repeal the tax.

“Everywhere I go, people come up to me and say, you know, ‘We’re losing faith in the Liberal party,'” McDonald said at the time in an interview with the CBC’s Power & Politics.

“I think they will lose seats not just in Newfoundland, not just in Atlantic Canada, but indeed right across the country if they don’t get a grasp on this the way that I think they should.”

“Everywhere I go, people come up to me and say, you know, ‘We’re losing faith in the Liberal party.’”

– Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal MP Ken McDonald

There’s been an outcry from premiers and pundits to Atlantic Canada’s exemption, asking why it’s not being made nationwide and applicable to cleaner heating fuels like natural gas.

Prime Minister Trudeau and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeaut, meanwhile, have stuck to their guns, ruling out any further exemptions. Then last week, Sen. Percey Down, a Prince Edward Islander and former chief of staff to former prime minister Jean Chretien, published an opinion piece in National News Watch saying the Liberal party should consider a new leader.

“The prudent course of action is for another Liberal leader to rise from the impressive Liberal caucus and safeguard those policies he was actually able to accomplish,” wrote Downe.

“If the new Liberal leader is able to bring the party back to the centre of the political spectrum, Liberals have a chance of being re-elected.”

The current government isn’t required to call a federal election until fall 2025, leaving time to seek to reverse their fortunes. If the federal NDP continues with their agreement to prop up the Liberal government by backing them on confidence votes, that could happen.

But Nanos doesn’t consider that likely.

“The NDP can’t have this government go full term,” said Nanos.

“But you can’t prop up a government then trigger an election. They will need a cooling-off period. At some point in 2024, I would say the NDP will pull out of the parliamentary arrangement and say ‘Our support will go on a vote-by-vote basis.’ The NDP will want some distance between them and the Liberals before going to a vote.”